Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Name: Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?
End: 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.60K

Events

Markets

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Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Vol

$1.60K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $1.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $1.60K

100%

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25 markets tracked

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	50%
Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	50%
Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	46%
Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	39%
Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	25%
Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	3%
Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	3%
Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	2%
Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	1%
Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	1%
Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	1%
Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on October 11?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$1.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probabilit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 12, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probabilit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chicago, IL falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $96
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $66
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $66
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Volume$1.60K

Markets25

25 of 25

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POLYMARKET

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Denver, CO falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (

POLYMARKET

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nashville, TN falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentage

POLYMARKET

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Charlotte, NC falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentage

POLYMARKET

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chicago, IL falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages

POLYMARKET

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tampa, FL falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 11, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2

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Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

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Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

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Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Markets (25)

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

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Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which cities face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 11?

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