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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly lower than X by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.
The prediction market on Kalshi currently prices a 45% probability that the average regular gas price in Florida will be strictly lower than $2.60 per gallon by December 31, 2026. This price point, translating to a 45% chance, indicates the market sees this outcome as slightly less likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. The thin trading volume of approximately $2,000 spread across four related price-point markets suggests low consensus and high sensitivity to new information.
The primary factor weighing on the market is the long-term uncertainty in global crude oil markets, which are the fundamental driver of retail gasoline prices. Current pricing reflects skepticism that a sustained drop below $2.60 is probable within the 2026 timeframe, given structural pressures like geopolitical volatility, potential OPEC+ production policies, and steady demand. Secondly, state-specific factors for Florida, including its lack of a state gasoline tax cut and vulnerability to hurricane-related refinery disruptions, add a persistent risk premium that makes sustained ultra-low prices less likely. Historical context is critical, as Florida's statewide average has rarely sustained levels below $2.60 for extended periods outside of major demand crashes, like the brief period during the initial 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns.
The odds could shift significantly with changes in the broader economic landscape. A sharp global economic recession in 2025 or 2026, leading to a sustained drop in oil demand, would be a major catalyst for lower prices and increase the "Yes" probability. Conversely, escalating geopolitical conflicts affecting major oil producers or a faster-than-expected global economic recovery could push price expectations higher, lowering the current 45% probability. Key dates to watch are OPEC+ meetings and the Atlantic hurricane season each summer, as a direct hit on Gulf Coast refineries could cause temporary price spikes that affect the annual average. The market's low liquidity means any substantial new trade or major headline could cause rapid price movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether average regular gasoline prices in New York State will fall below specific price thresholds by December 31, 2026, using data from the American Automobile Association (AAA). The market resolves to 'Yes' if the average price is strictly lower than the designated price point on that date. This topic represents a forward-looking economic indicator that combines elements of energy markets, consumer economics, and regional economic forecasting. Gasoline prices in New York are influenced by a complex interplay of global crude oil markets, state-specific taxes and regulations, refining capacity, seasonal demand patterns, and transportation logistics. The AAA serves as the authoritative data source, tracking daily average prices at thousands of gas stations across the state. Recent interest in this topic stems from volatile energy markets following geopolitical events, changing consumption patterns post-pandemic, and policy initiatives affecting fossil fuel production and distribution. Market participants are attempting to forecast whether current trends toward lower prices will continue through 2026 or whether external factors might reverse this trajectory. The prediction market format allows for collective intelligence to assess probabilities of various price outcomes, providing insights beyond traditional economic forecasts.
New York gasoline prices have shown significant volatility over the past two decades, influenced by both national trends and state-specific factors. In 2008, average regular gasoline prices in New York reached a record high of $4.33 per gallon in July, driven by global crude oil prices exceeding $140 per barrel. The 2014-2016 period saw a dramatic decline, with prices falling below $2.00 per gallon in some parts of the state by early 2016 as U.S. shale production surged and OPEC maintained output. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented volatility, with New York prices plummeting to an average of $1.95 per gallon in April 2020 as demand collapsed, followed by a rapid recovery to over $3.50 by 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 pushed New York gasoline prices to new highs, averaging $4.93 per gallon in June 2022. Historically, New York prices typically run 20-40 cents per gallon above the national average due to higher taxes, stricter environmental regulations requiring special fuel blends, and transportation costs. The state's gasoline tax structure has evolved significantly, with the current system including an 8-cent excise tax, a petroleum business tax of approximately 17 cents, and state sales tax applied to the entire purchase price. These historical patterns provide context for understanding potential price movements through 2026.
Gasoline prices in New York have substantial economic implications for both consumers and businesses across the state. For the average household, transportation represents the second-largest expense category after housing, meaning gasoline price fluctuations directly impact disposable income and spending patterns. Lower gasoline prices can stimulate economic activity by increasing consumer purchasing power for other goods and services, while higher prices can constrain household budgets and reduce discretionary spending. For businesses, transportation costs affect logistics, delivery services, and product pricing, particularly in sectors like retail, manufacturing, and agriculture that rely heavily on road transportation. The political significance is also considerable, as gasoline prices often influence voter perceptions of economic management and can drive policy responses ranging from tax suspensions to strategic reserve releases. Environmentally, sustained lower gasoline prices could potentially slow the transition to electric vehicles, affecting progress toward New York's climate goals. Conversely, higher prices might accelerate adoption of alternative transportation modes and efficiency improvements. The social impact extends to commuting patterns, tourism, and regional economic disparities, with rural areas typically experiencing greater sensitivity to fuel price changes due to longer travel distances and fewer public transportation alternatives.
As of late 2024, New York gasoline prices have moderated from their 2022 peaks but remain above pre-pandemic levels. The state average has fluctuated between $3.30 and $3.60 per gallon through much of 2024, reflecting balanced global oil markets and adequate refining capacity. Recent developments include the implementation of New York's carbon cap-and-invest program, which could add additional costs to transportation fuels starting in 2025. Global oil prices have shown relative stability with Brent crude trading in the $75-$85 range, though geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and production decisions by OPEC+ continue to create uncertainty. Domestic factors include normalizing post-pandemic demand patterns and ongoing refinery operations in the Northeast, including the Bayway refinery in New Jersey which supplies significant volumes to the New York market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy continues to influence economic growth projections and thus gasoline demand expectations for 2025-2026.
New York gasoline prices are primarily influenced by four factors: global crude oil prices (approximately 50-60% of retail price), state and federal taxes (about 20-25% in New York), refining and distribution costs (15-20%), and seasonal demand patterns. State-specific regulations requiring special fuel blends also add costs compared to national averages.
AAA calculates average prices through daily surveys of over 100,000 gas stations nationwide, using credit card transaction data and direct station surveys. For New York, they sample stations across all regions of the state, weighting results by sales volume to create a representative statewide average that updates daily.
New York prices typically exceed national averages by 20-40 cents due to higher state taxes (47.3 cents per gallon total), special environmental fuel requirements that increase refining costs, greater transportation expenses to supply the Northeast market, and generally higher operating costs for retail stations.
The modern record low occurred in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic when demand collapsed, with the statewide average reaching $1.95 per gallon. Prior to that, prices briefly fell below $2.00 in early 2016 during an oil price downturn, though they averaged $2.15 for that year.
New York experiences predictable seasonal patterns with prices typically rising in spring as refineries transition to more expensive summer-blend gasoline required for air quality, then peaking in summer with increased driving demand. Prices generally decline in fall and winter, though winter weather can sometimes disrupt supplies and cause temporary spikes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.90 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 76% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 59% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.70 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 34% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.50 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 10% |
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