This prediction market topic concerns the potential collapse of Iran's current governing system, the Islamic Republic, by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the core structures of the regime, including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under clerical authority, are dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of government. This represents a high-stakes political forecast about regime stability in a strategically vital Middle Eastern nation. The Islamic Republic, established in 1979, is a theocratic system blending religious authority with republican elements, but it has faced persistent internal dissent and external pressure. Recent years have seen significant public protests, most notably the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement sparked in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody. These protests evolved into broader challenges against clerical rule. International observers and analysts are closely monitoring the regime's resilience against economic strain from sanctions, demographic pressures from a young population, and geopolitical isolation. The topic garners interest from policymakers, regional analysts, and market participants due to its profound implications for global energy markets, regional security, and the future of political Islam.

Historical Context

The current Islamic Republic was established in 1979 following the Iranian Revolution, which overthrew the Western-backed monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. The revolution replaced a secular autocracy with a theocratic system based on the concept of Velayat-e Faqih, as articulated by its first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. This system concentrated ultimate authority in a religious jurist and created parallel revolutionary institutions, like the IRGC and the Guardian Council, to safeguard the revolution's ideals. The regime survived an eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988) and has repeatedly faced significant internal challenges. The 2009 Green Movement protests, following a disputed presidential election, represented a major crisis of legitimacy but were ultimately suppressed. More recently, nationwide protests in November 2019 over fuel price hikes and in September 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini demonstrated deepening public anger and a willingness to challenge core tenets of the regime, including the mandatory hijab law and the authority of the Supreme Leader. Each cycle of protest has been met with severe crackdowns, but the underlying socio-economic grievances and demands for political freedom have persisted, creating a historical pattern of recurring crisis.

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