$238.21K
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9
$238.21K
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9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between
Prediction markets currently give a 100% probability that New York City’s high temperature on February 27 will be 39 degrees Fahrenheit or colder. In practical terms, traders are completely certain the day will not get warmer than 39°F. The forecast is based on the official reading from LaGuardia Airport, which is the standard weather station for the city.
Two main factors explain this unanimous prediction. First, the date falls in the heart of winter. New York’s average high temperature in late February is historically in the low 40s, so a forecast at or below 39°F is very typical for the season. Second, and more specifically, short-term weather models available to the public consistently show a cold air mass settling over the Northeast during this period. There is no sign in reliable forecasts of a warm surge that could push temperatures above this threshold. Markets moved to 100% because the window for a major forecast shift has effectively closed, leaving no plausible path to a warmer outcome.
The main event is the day itself, February 27. The official high temperature will be recorded and verified using data from the LaGuardia Airport weather station, typically available on sites like Wunderground shortly after midnight on February 28. No future announcements or events will change the outcome now. The market has resolved because all credible weather information is already in.
For short-term weather outcomes like a single day’s high temperature, prediction markets are generally very accurate once you are within a few days of the event. They aggregate data from weather models and human judgment effectively. However, their accuracy depends on the quality of available forecasts. In this case, with high confidence from meteorological models just a day ahead, the market reflects near-certainty. A limitation is that markets can sometimes overreact to a clear short-term trend, but for a simple, imminent fact like a temperature reading, they tend to be correct.
Prediction markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the highest temperature in New York City on February 27 will be 39°F or below. This market, trading on Polymarket, has effectively resolved with near-certainty. The "Yes" share for the 39°F or below outcome trades at 100 cents, indicating traders see no chance of the temperature exceeding that threshold. With over $293,000 in total volume, this high-liquidity market reflects a consensus backed by substantial capital.
The market's certainty stems from verifiable, real-world data. The resolution source is the recorded weather history from the LaGuardia Airport station for February 27, 2026. Since this date has already passed, the actual high temperature is a known, immutable fact. Traders are not predicting future weather, they are betting on a historical measurement. The 100% price indicates the data from Wunderground has confirmed the high temperature was indeed 39°F or lower. This is a straightforward factual resolution, removing all predictive uncertainty.
For a market resolving on historical data, the odds cannot change based on new forecasts or events. The only factor that could alter the price would be a dispute over the resolution source itself. A scenario where the data provider, Wunderground, published an incorrect initial reading and later corrected it could theoretically create temporary price movement. However, given the market's 100% price and high volume, this is extremely unlikely. The market has functionally closed, with the outcome settled by the official recorded temperature.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at New York City's LaGuardia Airport on March 2, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the LaGuardia Airport Station (KLGA), specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on that date. Participants predict which temperature range will contain the official high. This type of market falls under climate prediction, blending meteorology with financial speculation. Interest stems from both weather enthusiasts tracking seasonal patterns and traders analyzing statistical probabilities of temperature outcomes. The specific focus on a single calendar date and a single, authoritative weather station creates a clear, verifiable outcome for market resolution. LaGuardia Airport is one of three primary official weather observation sites for New York City, alongside John F. Kennedy International Airport and Central Park. Its data is used by the National Weather Service and forms part of the official climate record for the region. Markets like this one test predictive models against actual atmospheric behavior, offering insights into short-term climate forecasting accuracy and public perception of weather trends.
Systematic weather observation in New York City dates to the 19th century, with Central Park's records beginning in 1869. LaGuardia Airport's weather station has been in operation since the airport opened in 1939, providing a continuous record for over 80 years. Its data is part of the official climate record for New York City, used to track long-term trends. For the specific date of March 2, historical extremes provide a benchmark. The highest temperature ever recorded in New York City on any March 2 was 72 degrees Fahrenheit, measured in Central Park in 1976. The lowest maximum temperature for the date was 24 degrees Fahrenheit in 1960. At LaGuardia, the record high for March 2 is 70 degrees Fahrenheit, set in 1976. The record low maximum is 28 degrees, recorded in 1980. The climatological normal high temperature for March 2 in New York City, based on the 1991-2020 period, is approximately 46 degrees Fahrenheit. March temperatures are highly variable due to the transitional nature of early spring in the Northeastern United States, where Arctic air masses can still clash with warmer southern systems.
The outcome of this specific temperature prediction matters for several practical sectors. Energy companies use daily temperature forecasts to predict demand for heating, which directly affects natural gas and electricity markets. A warmer-than-expected March day can lead to lower energy consumption and price volatility. For agriculture in the broader region, early March temperatures influence decisions about crop planting and pest management. Unseasonable warmth can trigger premature bud break in orchards, risking damage from subsequent frosts. Urban infrastructure and public health are also affected. City agencies plan snow removal and road treatment budgets based on seasonal forecasts. Public health officials monitor temperature extremes that can exacerbate conditions for vulnerable populations. From a scientific perspective, individual daily highs contribute to the monthly and seasonal climate record. Anomalously warm days in early spring are studied as potential indicators of shifting seasonal patterns and broader climate change impacts in the Northeast.
As of early 2025, seasonal outlooks for the 2025-2026 winter and following spring have not been issued. The current status relies on recent trends. The winter of 2023-2024 was the warmest on record for the contiguous United States, according to NOAA. New York City has experienced a trend toward warmer winters and earlier spring conditions over the past decade. The most recent complete March data, from 2024, saw above-average temperatures for much of the month in the Northeast. Climate models suggest an increased probability of warmer-than-normal conditions in the Northeast during late winter and early spring, but specific daily forecasts for March 2, 2026, will not be available until approximately one week before the date.
Central Park is an official climate site, but LaGuardia Airport's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) provides continuous, automated data that meets strict aviation standards. For a prediction market requiring a precise, unambiguous daily maximum, the automated ASOS data at KLGA offers a clear resolution source with publicly accessible archives.
Specific daily temperature forecasts are not possible a year ahead. Seasonal outlooks can indicate probabilities for above or below average temperatures over a three-month period. Accurate daily forecasts for March 2, 2026, will only become possible about 7-10 days prior, relying on short-term numerical weather prediction models.
In New York City during early March, the highest temperature typically occurs between 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. The official daily maximum is the highest reading recorded at the station over the 24-hour period ending at midnight local time.
Yes, but less so than at Central Park. LaGuardia is located on the waterfront, which moderates temperatures. The urban heat island effect, which can raise nighttime lows, is somewhat mitigated at airport locations compared to denser urban centers, though the surrounding infrastructure still has a warming influence.
The market rules designate Wunderground's data for KLGA as the resolution source. If that specific source is unavailable or corrupted, the market operator would typically invoke contingency rules, which may involve using backup official data from the National Weather Service or the FAA for LaGuardia Airport.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Poly | 54% |
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