GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

CA-06 House winner?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

CA-06 House winner?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?	Kalshi	94%
Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?	Kalshi	5%
Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

CA-06 If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-06 House winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** CA-06

If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Kevin Kiley Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

CA-06 House winner?

Volume$0.00

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 94.8¢

KALSHISports

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Kevin Kiley Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

If the House member sworn in for CA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

33¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ahzTBU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CA-06 House winner?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

CA-06 House winner?

CA-06 House winner?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

CA-06 House winner?

Markets (3)

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

CA-06 House winner?

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

Will Republican win the House race for CA-06?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget