Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

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$12.89K

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How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

Vol

$12.89K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $12.89K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.89K

100%

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4 markets tracked

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?	Kalshi	67%
Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?	Kalshi	20%
Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?	Kalshi	11%
Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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67%

Top Probability

$12.89K

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About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least X during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles of impeachment it contains. Each such resolution counts once. Does NOT count: X resolution that is tabled, referred to committee, or otherwise not adopted An article of impeachment that is introd

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 20, 2029

If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least X during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles of impeachment it contains. Each such resolution counts once. Does NOT count: X resolution that is tabled, referred to committee, or otherwise not adopted An article of impeachment that is introd

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least 4 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2029): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2029): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

Volume$12.89K

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KALSHI

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least 1 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles

KALSHI

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least 2 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles

KALSHI

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least 3 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles

KALSHI

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

If the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump is at least 4 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An impeachment is the House of Representatives adopting a resolution that impeaches Donald Trump, however many articles

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How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

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Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

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Events (1)

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

Markets (4)

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

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Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

Will the number of times the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump be at least 4 during his second term as President?

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