Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner

Name: French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner
End: 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.35K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner

Vol

$25.35K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.35K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.35K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	100%
Will Olivier Faure win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Philippe Brun win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Jérôme Guedj win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Emmanuel Maurel win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$25.35K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Ot

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Ot

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who rec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $132.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Olivier Faure win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Philippe Brun win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $395
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ségolène Royal win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jérôme Guedj win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $835
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Emmanuel Maurel win the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $491
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics