Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

Total Volume

$20.96K

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Markets

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How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

Vol

$20.96K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $20.96K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.96K

100%

Kalshi leads

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5 markets tracked

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$20.96K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 If the President signs above X executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan 1, 2025 to Jan 7, 2025," and on January 10th the Federal Register published a numbered Executive Order with a January 7th signing date, the market would resolve to Yes. Payout criteria An "

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026

If the President signs above X executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan 1, 2025 to Jan 7, 2025," and on January 10th the Federal Register published a numbered Executive Order with a January 7th signing date, the market would resolve to Yes. Payout criteria An "

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President signs above 4 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved

The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to.
For example, if the period was "Jan "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

Volume$20.96K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

If the President signs above 0 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan

KALSHI

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

If the President signs above 3 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan

KALSHI

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

If the President signs above 1 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan

KALSHI

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

If the President signs above 4 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan

KALSHI

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

If the President signs above 2 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ajWSHe" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)"></iframe>

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How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

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Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

Markets (5)

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

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Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 3 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 4 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?

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