Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? | PredictPedia

GroupPOLYMARKET

Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

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$14.25K

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Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

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Polymarket

1

markets · $14.25K

Kalshi

0

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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0

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Volume DistributionTotal: $14.25K

100%

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Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?	Poly	15%

AI Analysis

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15%

Top Probability

$14.25K

Volume

1

Markets

1

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a

Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Khartoum by the June 30, 2026 deadline. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at approximately 13¢, implying the market sees just a 13% chance of this event occurring. This low probability suggests traders view an RSF takeover of the Sudanese capital as unlikely within the given timeframe, though not impossible. The market has thin liquidity, with only about $14,000 in total volume, indicating this remains a speculative niche topic.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are suppressing the probability. First, the entrenched military stalemate around Khartoum makes a decisive capture logistically difficult. Despite intense fighting since the civil war began in April 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have maintained control of key bases and infrastructure in the capital region, using air power to offset RSF ground advantages. Second, the specific resolution condition requiring RSF control of Khartoum International Airport sets a high bar. The airport is a symbolically and strategically vital asset that the SAF has fiercely defended. Its fall would represent a catastrophic defeat for the national army, which they are structured to prevent.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds could rise significantly if there is a major shift in the conflict's dynamics before the resolution date. An upcoming catalyst is the potential for external military intervention or a substantial increase in foreign arms supplies to either side, which could break the current stalemate. A collapse in SAF morale or cohesion, leading to the abandonment of key defensive positions in the capital, would also cause probabilities to spike. Conversely, the odds could fall further toward 0% if credible peace talks gain momentum or if the RSF suffers a major strategic reversal in other regions, diverting resources away from the Khartoum front. Monitoring battlefield reports around the airport and the city's central districts will be the clearest indicator of any change in the war's trajectory.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Overview

This prediction market topic concerns whether the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group in Sudan, will capture the capital city of Khartoum by June 30, 2026. The market specifically resolves based on whether the RSF establishes military control over Khartoum International Airport by that deadline. This question sits at the heart of Sudan's ongoing civil war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the country's official military, and the RSF. The battle for Khartoum is the central front in this conflict, representing a struggle for national sovereignty and control over Sudan's political and economic nerve center. People are interested in this topic because the outcome will determine the future governance of Sudan, influence regional stability in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, and have profound humanitarian consequences. The war has already caused one of the world's worst displacement crises and brought Khartoum, a city of millions, to the brink of famine. The resolution of this market will signal which faction has achieved a decisive military advantage, potentially ending the war or prolonging it indefinitely.

Historical Context

The current battle for Khartoum is the culmination of a decade-long power struggle between the SAF and the RSF. The roots trace back to the Darfur conflict in the 2000s, where the government of Omar al-Bashir mobilized Arab militias, later formalized as the RSF in 2013, to crush rebellions. Under al-Bashir, the RSF grew into a parallel security force, loyal to Hemedti and used for regime protection and lucrative economic activities. Following a popular revolution that ousted al-Bashir in April 2019, the SAF and RSF formed an uneasy alliance to manage a transitional government. This partnership collapsed over a disputed plan to integrate the RSF into the SAF within two years, a timeline Hemedti resisted. The simmering tensions exploded into open warfare on April 15, 2023, when RSF troops deployed around the country attacked SAF positions in Khartoum and elsewhere. The city has been a battleground ever since, with previous battles for control, like the siege of Juba in South Sudan's civil war, providing a grim precedent for the devastation of urban warfare in the region.

Why It Matters

The capture of Khartoum would represent more than a military victory, it would be a fundamental political transformation. If the RSF succeeds, it would likely mean the end of the Sudanese state as it has existed since independence, replacing a formal military institution with a paramilitary structure built on patronage and control of resources. This could plunge Sudan into a new era of warlordism and fragmented authority. Economically, control of the capital means control of the Central Bank of Sudan, major ports of trade on the Nile, and the remnants of the nation's formal economy. Socially, an RSF victory would have dire implications for millions of civilians in Khartoum who have already endured over a year of siege, aerial bombardment, and widespread atrocities, including ethnic targeting by RSF forces. Regionally, a victorious RSF could export its model of paramilitary governance, further destabilizing the Sahel and creating new corridors for arms and migrant trafficking. The humanitarian crisis, already catastrophic, would likely intensify.

Current Status

As of mid-2024, the RSF controls most of Khartoum's metropolitan area, but the Sudanese Armed Forces retain control of key strategic sites. Most notably, the SAF continues to hold the Khartoum International Airport complex and uses it as a base for its air force, which conducts regular airstrikes on RSF positions. The front lines have become somewhat static but are punctuated by intense artillery duels and RSF attempts to storm SAF fortifications. The humanitarian situation is dire, with the few remaining civilians facing starvation and disease. Internationally brokered ceasefire talks, such as those in Jeddah, have repeatedly failed to produce a lasting agreement, and both sides appear committed to a military solution.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)?

The Rapid Support Forces are a powerful paramilitary group in Sudan, originally formed from the Janjaweed militias used in the Darfur conflict. They were formally established as a legal entity in 2013 and grew into a parallel army with their own command structure, finances, and foreign backing, leading to the current war with the official Sudanese military.

Who is winning the war in Sudan right now?

As of mid-2024, the RSF holds a significant military advantage on the ground, controlling most of the capital Khartoum and the vast western region of Darfur. However, the Sudanese Armed Forces maintain control of the riverine northeast, key infrastructure like the Khartoum airport, and possess air superiority, creating a bloody stalemate with no clear victor yet.

Why is Khartoum International Airport so important?

The airport is the primary strategic military objective in Khartoum. It is a major logistics hub and the main base for the Sudanese Air Force. Controlling it would allow the RSF to cripple SAF air operations, secure a major supply route, and symbolically demonstrate full conquest of the capital, making it a definitive metric for 'capture'.

What is the humanitarian situation in Khartoum?

The situation is catastrophic. The city is under effective siege, with widespread famine conditions, a collapsed healthcare system, and rampant disease. Millions have fled, and hundreds of thousands who remain, mostly in RSF-controlled areas, face extreme hunger and violence, with aid access severely limited by the fighting.

Was this helpful?

Updated Jan 16, 2026

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (165 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. 

If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $524
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 27.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $14.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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