This prediction market asks whether the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group in Sudan, will capture Khartoum, the capital city, by June 30, 2026. The specific condition for resolution is that the RSF must establish military control over Khartoum International Airport. The RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have been engaged in a civil war since April 2023, when a power struggle between the two factions erupted into open conflict. Khartoum has been a primary battleground, with control shifting between the SAF and RSF at various points. The RSF initially seized large parts of the city in the early months of the war, including the airport and strategic government buildings, but the SAF has since mounted counteroffensives to reclaim territory. The question reflects the ongoing volatility and the potential for a decisive military outcome that would reshape the conflict. People are interested because control of Khartoum, the political and economic center of Sudan, would give the RSF a major strategic advantage, potentially leading to international recognition or a shift in the balance of power. The market also captures uncertainty around the RSF's military capabilities, the SAF's resilience, and the role of external actors like the United Arab Emirates, which has been accused of supplying the RSF. The resolution date of June 30, 2026, provides a two-year horizon for potential developments, including peace negotiations, foreign intervention, or a continued stalemate. The conflict has already caused a humanitarian crisis, with over 10 million people displaced and widespread famine, making the outcome of the battle for Khartoum a matter of global concern.

Historical Context

Sudan has a long history of civil wars and military coups since independence in 1956. The Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011. The Darfur conflict, which began in 2003, saw the government use Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, to suppress non-Arab rebels. The Janjaweed were later formalized into the RSF in 2013 under the command of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti. The RSF grew in power under President Omar al-Bashir, who used them to crush protests and fight rebels. In 2019, a popular uprising ousted al-Bashir, and a transitional government was formed, with the RSF and SAF sharing power. In October 2021, al-Burhan and Hemedti jointly led a coup that dissolved the civilian government, but tensions between the two factions over the integration of the RSF into the army led to the outbreak of war on April 15, 2023. The conflict began with RSF attacks on SAF bases in Khartoum and quickly spread across the country. The RSF seized large parts of Khartoum, including the presidential palace, the airport, and key bridges, within the first week. However, the SAF retained control of the army headquarters, the Signal Corps, and the Yarmouk military complex. Since then, the front lines have shifted, with the SAF launching counteroffensives in early 2024 that recaptured some neighborhoods, such as Omdurman and parts of Bahri. The RSF has also been fighting in other regions, including Darfur, where it has gained control of most major cities. The conflict has killed over 15,000 people, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), and displaced more than 10 million, making it the world's largest displacement crisis. The battle for Khartoum remains the symbolic and strategic center of the war.