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Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

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Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

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Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	90%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	82%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	56%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	39%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	22%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 27 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	14%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 26 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	14%
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?	Kalshi	12%

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once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least X once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, including runoffs, are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Any vacant governorship for which no election will be held in November 2026 will be treated as belonging

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of Republican governors after the midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least X once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, including runoffs, are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Any vacant governorship for which no election will be held in November 2026 will be treated as belonging

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 27 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 26 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic

KALSHI

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic

KALSHI

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic

KALSHI

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic

KALSHI

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Any vacant governorship for whic

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Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

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Events (1)

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

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Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

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Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract?

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