This prediction market focuses on forecasting the median home value in Miami, Florida, on February 1, 2026. The resolution will be determined by the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City, a data provider specializing in real-time real estate analytics. The final settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price-per-square-foot index value by 2,100, representing the median square footage of homes in Miami. This creates a specific, data-driven metric for tracking the health and trajectory of one of the nation's most dynamic and watched housing markets. The Miami real estate market has become a bellwether for national trends, influenced by migration patterns, international investment, climate risk perceptions, and broader economic forces like interest rates. Recent years have seen unprecedented price appreciation, followed by a period of stabilization and renewed questions about sustainability. This market allows participants to quantify expectations about whether current trends will continue, accelerate, or reverse, making it a direct gauge of sentiment on Miami's economic future and desirability. Interest stems from homeowners, investors, policymakers, and businesses whose fortunes are tied to local property values, as well as analysts seeking to understand the interplay between coastal luxury markets and the national economy.

Historical Context

Miami's modern real estate history is marked by boom-and-bust cycles closely tied to broader economic and demographic shifts. The early 2000s saw a massive speculative bubble, with median sales prices peaking in late 2006 before collapsing during the Great Financial Crisis. By 2011, prices had fallen by over 50% from their peak, and the market was flooded with distressed properties. The subsequent recovery was slow but steady, fueled by investors and international capital. The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed a historic surge. Beginning in mid-2020, an influx of remote workers, investors, and domestic migrants seeking tax advantages and lifestyle changes drove demand to unprecedented levels. According to the Miami Association of Realtors, the median sales price for single-family homes in Miami-Dade County skyrocketed from $405,000 in January 2020 to $600,000 by the end of 2021, a 48% increase in two years. This period established a new, higher baseline for valuations. The market began to cool in 2022 as the Federal Reserve initiated its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle, but prices largely plateaued at elevated levels rather than crashing, demonstrating newfound resilience compared to previous cycles. This historical volatility and recent resilience set the stage for the current forecasting challenge for 2026.

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