Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

Total Volume

$25.37K

Events

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How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

Vol

$25.37K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $25.37K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.37K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	25%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	8%
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$25.37K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliate

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliate

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning can"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $17.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

Volume$25.37K

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KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning can

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning can

KALSHI

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning can

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ar7weU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?"></iframe>

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How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

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Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Events (1)

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

Markets (3)

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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