Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently price a 78% probability that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. This high confidence level, derived from a combined $6.8 million in wagers across Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates traders view his nomination as the most probable outcome. A 78% chance translates to roughly a 4 in 5 likelihood, suggesting the market sees his path as clear but not completely assured. The market will resolve on March 3, 2026, when the primary is held, or immediately if Paxton secures the nomination earlier.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Paxton’s dominant market position stems from his solidified base within the Texas GOP. His decisive acquittal in a 2023 impeachment trial by the state Senate, where fellow Republicans voted overwhelmingly to dismiss the charges, removed a major political obstacle and demonstrated his institutional strength. His persistent legal battles with federal and state authorities, including an ongoing securities fraud case, have not diminished his support among primary voters. Instead, these conflicts reinforce his image as a conservative fighter, a narrative that resonates powerfully in Republican primaries. The lack of a declared, well-funded challenger with comparable name recognition further consolidates his frontrunner status.

What Could Change These Odds

The primary is still nearly two years away, leaving room for volatility. A credible challenger entering the race could shift probabilities, particularly if they secure endorsements from major donors or influential figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Paxton’s legal exposure remains a persistent risk. An unfavorable verdict or new indictment in his long-running securities fraud case could destabilize his campaign, though his base has historically treated such developments as politically motivated attacks. National Republican strategy may also influence the race. If party leaders perceive Paxton as a general election liability for a must-hold Senate seat, they could quietly mobilize resources behind an alternative candidate, applying pressure not yet reflected in market prices.

Cross-Platform Analysis

The 78% probability is a consensus figure across both Polymarket and Kalshi, with minimal arbitrage opportunity. This price alignment across platforms with different user bases, one operating globally and the other restricted to U.S. residents, signals a strong consensus among politically engaged bettors. The high liquidity, with millions in volume spread across related markets on the nominee and the general election, confirms this is a major political futures event. Traders are effectively treating the Republican primary as the decisive contest for the seat.