How high will US gas prices get in 2026? | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will average gas prices be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	58%
Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	41%
Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	35%
Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	31%
Will average gas prices be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will average gas prices be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will average gas prices be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will average gas prices be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will average gas prices be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will average gas prices be above $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will average gas prices be above $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will average gas prices be above $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	10%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than X at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $7.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average **gas prices** be above $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

34¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/b2UG0y" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How high will US gas prices get in 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Markets (15)

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?