GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

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How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will average gas prices be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will average gas prices be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will average gas prices be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will average gas prices be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will average gas prices be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will average gas prices be above $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will average gas prices be above $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will average gas prices be above $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

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About This Event

In 2026 If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than X at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than X at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $7.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average **gas prices** be above $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET

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Average Yes Price

17¢

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How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

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Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Markets (13)

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Related News & Context

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Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?