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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.69K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Vol

$28.69K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.69K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.69K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Poly	99%
Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Poly	1%
Will Alexander Gaasserud be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$28.69K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $28.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.99)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $14.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alexander Gaasserud be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics