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$954.14
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any af
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain Republican victory in the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?" is trading at 92 cents, implying a 92% probability. This price indicates the market views the outcome as almost assured, with only a marginal 8% chance assigned to a Democratic or other party victory. Current trading volume is thin, at approximately $1,000 across related markets, suggesting limited capital is confirming this consensus so far from the election.
The overwhelming odds are primarily driven by Kansas's strong Republican lean in federal elections. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. The incumbent Senator, Jerry Moran, is a Republican and is widely expected to seek re-election, providing a significant incumbency advantage. Furthermore, the 2026 cycle is a midterm election, a context where the party not holding the presidency often performs well, which in this scenario would further bolster Republican prospects in a deep-red state.
Fundamentally, the market is pricing based on structural political fundamentals rather than a specific race analysis. With no declared challengers and the election nearly two years away, the odds reflect the high historical baseline for a Republican candidate in Kansas. The market effectively sees the race as the GOP's to lose barring an extraordinary scandal or political shift.
The current 92% probability could decrease if a credible, well-funded Democratic challenger emerges, particularly one who can appeal to the state's moderate voters. A significant deterioration in Senator Moran's approval ratings or an unexpected retirement opening the seat could also introduce volatility. However, the most plausible near-term catalyst for odds movement would be the official candidate filing and the onset of the primary season in early 2026. Until then, the market is likely to remain stable, with any major price movement before 2026 signaling a substantial change in the perceived political landscape.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Kansas Senate Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will win the 2026 United States Senate election for the state of Kansas. This election will decide who holds one of Kansas's two seats in the U.S. Senate for a six-year term beginning in January 2027. The market resolves based on the official winner certified by the Kansas Secretary of State, including any potential run-off elections. This race is a key component of the 2026 midterm elections, where 33 Senate seats will be contested nationally. The outcome will significantly impact the balance of power in the closely divided U.S. Senate, making it a focal point for national political strategists and observers. Interest in this market stems from Kansas's evolving political landscape, which has shifted from a reliably Republican stronghold to a more competitive state in recent federal elections. The race will test whether Democrats can build on recent gains in the state or if Republicans can reassert their traditional dominance. The result will also serve as a barometer for national political trends heading toward the 2028 presidential election cycle.
Kansas has a deep political history as a traditionally Republican state, having voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 1964 through 2004. The state's Senate representation has been overwhelmingly Republican for decades, with Democrats holding a Senate seat only briefly when Kathleen Sebelius appointed Nancy Landon Kassebaum's son to fill a vacancy in 1996. The modern political landscape began shifting in the 2010s, particularly after Governor Sam Brownback's tax cuts led to budget crises that weakened the Republican brand. In 2018, Democrat Laura Kelly was elected governor, and Democrat Sharice Davids won a congressional seat in the Kansas City suburbs. In 2020, Kansas voters surprised political observers by rejecting a constitutional amendment that would have removed abortion rights protections, signaling changing attitudes on social issues. The 2022 election further demonstrated this shift, as voters rejected an abortion restriction amendment and re-elected Governor Kelly despite the state's Republican lean. These developments suggest Kansas may be transitioning from a reliably red state to a more competitive political environment, making the 2026 Senate race particularly significant as a test of whether this trend will continue.
The outcome of the Kansas Senate election will have significant implications for national governance. With the U.S. Senate frequently divided by narrow margins, a single seat can determine which party controls the chamber and its legislative agenda. A Democratic victory in Kansas would represent a major expansion of their electoral map and could provide a crucial vote for legislation on issues like healthcare, climate policy, and judicial appointments. Conversely, a Republican hold would help the party maintain or expand its Senate majority, influencing everything from federal budget priorities to Supreme Court nominations. Beyond Washington, the race will test whether Kansas's recent political evolution represents a temporary reaction to specific issues or a lasting realignment. The campaign will also shape state politics by determining which party controls resources and attention for future elections. For Kansans, the election will determine whether their senator aligns with the state's current divided government or provides a check on the opposing party's agenda at the federal level.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Kansas Senate race remains in its early stages. Incumbent Senator Jerry Moran has not formally announced whether he will seek a third term, though he has indicated he is considering it. Potential candidates from both parties are likely waiting for Moran's decision before declaring their intentions. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has identified Kansas as a potential expansion opportunity following recent Democratic successes in the state. Meanwhile, Republican organizations are preparing to defend the seat, recognizing that Kansas can no longer be taken for granted as a safe Republican state. Fundraising for the 2026 cycle is beginning, with political action committees positioning themselves for what could become a competitive and expensive race.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The primary election to select party nominees will occur earlier that year, typically in August, though the exact date will be set by Kansas election officials.
Yes, but rarely. The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas was George McGill, who served from 1930 to 1939. More recently, Democrat Nancy Landon Kassebaum Baker's son served briefly by appointment in 1996 but was not elected.
Filing deadlines have not been officially set for 2026, but based on previous cycles, candidate filing typically occurs in June of the election year. The exact deadline will be determined by the Kansas Secretary of State's office in 2025 or early 2026.
In the 2022 Kansas Senate election, total spending exceeded $25 million. Senator Jerry Moran's campaign spent approximately $12 million, while his Democratic opponent Mark Holland spent about $2 million, with additional spending from outside groups.
As of October 2024, Kansas has approximately 1.8 million registered voters, with 44.5 percent registered as Republicans, 27.5 percent as unaffiliated, and 25.5 percent as Democrats. The remaining voters are registered with minor parties.
Kansas does not have runoff elections for general elections. The candidate with the most votes wins, even if they receive less than 50 percent. However, some local jurisdictions and party primaries may have different rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 92% |
 | Poly | 8% |
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