Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

Name: Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$34.14K

Events

Markets

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Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $34.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $34.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$34.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Druzkhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading in

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Druzkhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Druzkhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stori"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.64)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $34.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 13h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/b5qBwL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?"></iframe>

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Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

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Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)