This prediction market asks who Donald Trump will endorse in a given election. Endorsements from Trump, a former president and the Republican Party’s dominant figure since 2016, carry significant weight in primary and general elections. His backing can shift donor support, media attention, and voter turnout, making the question of his choice a key variable in political races. The market resolves based on a public announcement from Trump or his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting, by the day before the election at 11:59 PM ET. If no endorsement is made by then, the market resolves to 'No'. Trump’s endorsement record is mixed. In the 2022 midterm elections, he endorsed over 200 candidates across federal and state races. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, 93% of his endorsed candidates who advanced past the primary won their primaries, but only 44% won their general elections. This divergence reflects his strong influence within the Republican base but limited sway in competitive general elections, especially in swing districts. His endorsements in 2024 have been similarly high-profile, including for Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania. The timing and nature of Trump’s endorsements are unpredictable. He often waits until late in a race, sometimes after multiple candidates have courted him publicly. His endorsements can come via social media posts, rally speeches, or written statements. The market’s resolution criteria require a clear, public declaration, which can be ambiguous if Trump makes conditional or vague statements. Interest in this market spikes during primary seasons and ahead of general elections, as traders try to predict which candidate will get his backing and how that will affect the race. The broader context includes Trump’s legal challenges and potential 2024 presidential campaign. His endorsements are seen as a way to maintain political influence and test his ability to shape the party’s direction. For traders, the market offers a way to bet on political dynamics beyond polls and fundraising. It also reflects a growing trend of using prediction markets to forecast political events, with platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket hosting similar contracts.

Historical Context

Trump’s endorsement power grew after the 2016 election. In 2018, he endorsed 51 candidates in primaries, with a 95% win rate, according to Ballotpedia. This success established him as the party’s kingmaker. By 2020, his endorsements were sought by incumbents and challengers alike, though some, like his backing of Senator Lindsey Graham, were safe bets. The 2022 midterms tested this influence. Trump endorsed candidates who echoed his false claims about the 2020 election, such as Kari Lake in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Both lost general elections, leading to criticism that his picks hurt the party. A Pew Research Center study found that 63% of Republican voters said Trump’s endorsements were important to their vote, but independents were less swayed. This split explained why many of his endorsed candidates won primaries but lost general elections. In 2024, Trump’s endorsements have been more selective. He has focused on Senate races where he can unseat incumbents he dislikes, like Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, or back allies like Tim Sheehy in Montana. His endorsements also reflect his ongoing legal battles, with some candidates pledging to investigate his prosecutors. This historical pattern shows that Trump’s endorsements are less about party unity and more about personal loyalty and political revenge.

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