GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

Name: Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$26.81K

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Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

Vol

$26.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $26.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	57%
Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	21%
Will Mendonça Filho win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	11%
Will Eduardo da Fonte win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	7%
Will Carlos Sant'Anna win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Mariano Macedo win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Paulo Rubem Santiago win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Túlio Gadêlha win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Gorett Bitu win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Mailson da Silva Neto win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Samuel Timoteo win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Pastor Gilvan Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$26.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.37)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Carlos Sant'Anna win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $549
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Eduardo da Fonte win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $804
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gorett Bitu win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $552
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mailson da Silva Neto win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $517
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mariano Macedo win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $470
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mendonça Filho win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Pastor Gilvan Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $523
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Paulo Rubem Santiago win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $542
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Samuel Timoteo win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Túlio Gadêlha win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $567
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics