What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give Tyler Perry's "Joe's College Road Trip" about a 50% chance of being the number two most-watched Netflix movie globally this week. In simple terms, traders see it as a coin flip. The market indicates no strong consensus, suggesting the race for the second spot is wide open among several films.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain these even odds. First, Tyler Perry's films have a reliable, dedicated audience on Netflix. His comedies, known for their broad appeal and efficient production, often debut strongly on the service. Second, the current global top ten list is likely in flux. A major new release might have taken the top spot, leaving several older films, including Perry's, to compete for the remaining high positions. Without a clear, fresh blockbuster dominating, the number two ranking becomes harder to predict.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The only event that matters is Netflix's official data update. The company will publish its weekly "Global Top 10" list on its website by Tuesday, February 24, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET. This list reflects total hours viewed from the prior Monday through Sunday. No other announcements or trailer drops will change the outcome, as the viewing period is already complete. The prediction will resolve as soon as that list is public.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Markets for weekly entertainment rankings like this are moderately reliable but volatile. They are good at aggregating signals about an existing film's staying power, like a Tyler Perry movie's consistent viewership. However, they can be surprised by unexpected viral hits or inaccurate if the public data Netflix provides doesn't match internal metrics. For a niche market with only a few thousand dollars wagered, the signal is weaker than in heavily traded political or financial markets, meaning the 50% odds reflect genuine uncertainty more than a precise forecast.