GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

Name: Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
End: 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

Vol

$1.42K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.42K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.42K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Poly	96%
Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Poly	3%
Will Viktor Yeroshenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Poly	2%
Will Mikhail Lisin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Poly	2%
Will Oleg Shalyapin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$1.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Penza Oblast on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Penza Oblast on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Penza Oblast on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

This market includes any potentia"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $52.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $363
  DATA: [Yes: 95.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Oleg Shalyapin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $565
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mikhail Lisin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Viktor Yeroshenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics