$3.79K
1
12
$3.79K
1
12
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the country that wins the second most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes f
Prediction markets currently assign Germany a 31% probability of winning the second-most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the market views Germany as a plausible but not leading contender for the silver medal position on the gold medal table. With Norway historically dominant and heavily favored to win the most golds, the battle for second place is the primary focus. The market shows thin liquidity, with only $4,000 in volume spread across 12 country-specific contracts, suggesting these are early, speculative odds.
Germany’s pricing reflects its consistent status as a winter sports powerhouse. At the 2022 Beijing Games, Germany finished second in the gold medal count with 12, trailing only Norway. Its strength is historically broad-based, with high medal potential in luge, biathlon, speed skating, and nordic combined. The 31% probability likely incorporates this strong historical baseline. However, the odds also account for rising competition. Nations like the United States and Canada are investing heavily in winter programs, while China demonstrated improved performance as a recent host. The market is effectively pricing Germany as the historical favorite for the runner-up spot, but with significant uncertainty.
The current odds will be highly sensitive to team announcements, athlete form, and pre-Olympic world championships in the winter of 2025/2026. A key catalyst will be the health and participation of Germany’s star athletes across disciplines. Conversely, if the United States or Canada shows dominant form in early 2026 World Cup events, their contract prices could rise, compressing Germany’s odds. Another major risk is the potential for a surprise nation, such as Austria or the Netherlands, to have an exceptional games in their niche sports, disrupting the expected hierarchy. The thin market liquidity means any major news could cause significant price volatility in the coming months.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which nation will secure the second-highest gold medal count at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina, Italy. The event, scheduled from February 6 to 22, 2026, will feature athletes from around the globe competing across 16 sports disciplines. The market resolves based on official International Olympic Committee medal standings, with a specific tie-breaking procedure: if two or more countries tie for the second-most gold medals, the tie is broken by which nation has won the most total medals (gold, silver, and bronze combined). Should a tie persist after applying this rule, alphabetical order of the country name is used as the final decider. This creates a precise and objective resolution mechanism for what is often a highly competitive position in the medal table. Interest in this market stems from the intense and unpredictable competition for podium positions behind the traditional winter sports powerhouse, Norway, which has dominated recent Games. Analysts and sports bettors closely monitor nations like Germany, the United States, Canada, and emerging challengers like China and the Netherlands, whose performances in specific sports can dramatically shift the standings. The outcome is influenced by athlete development cycles, host-nation advantages for Italy, and potential geopolitical factors affecting participation.
The competition for second place in the Winter Olympics gold medal count has been fiercely contested over the last two decades. At the 2022 Beijing Games, Norway set a record with 16 gold medals, while Germany finished second with 12 golds. The United States and China tied for third with 8 golds each, with the US claiming the position via the total medals tiebreaker. This recent precedent directly illustrates the tie-breaking mechanism relevant to this prediction market. The 2018 PyeongChang Games saw a different hierarchy: Norway led with 14 golds, Germany was second with 14 as well (winning the tie on total medals, 31 to 26), and Canada was third with 11. This shows Germany and Canada as consistent contenders. Historically, the Soviet Union and its successor states, along with Germany, have been perennial powers. The rise of Norway since the 1990s, fueled by dominance in cross-country skiing and biathlon, has reshaped the top of the table. The 2006 Torino Games, the last held in Italy, saw Germany top the gold medal table with 11, followed by the United States and Austria with 9 each, demonstrating the variability of outcomes from one Olympiad to the next.
The race for second in the gold medal count carries significant national prestige and has tangible implications for sports funding and development. For nations like Germany, Canada, and the United States, finishing as the top challenger to Norway is a benchmark of success that influences government and private investment in winter sports infrastructure and athlete support programs. A high placement validates national sporting strategies and can boost participation rates among youth. Politically, medal table performance is often viewed as a soft power indicator, with governments highlighting Olympic success as a reflection of national vitality and organizational prowess. For host nation Italy, a strong showing could enhance the domestic legacy and economic return on the massive investment required to stage the Games. Commercially, the outcome affects sponsorship valuations for national Olympic committees and can shift betting markets and prediction platforms for future events. The resolution of this market provides a clear, quantified measure of competitive hierarchy in global winter sports for the 2026 cycle.
As of late 2024, nations are in the final phases of qualifying athletes for the 2026 Games through World Cup and World Championship events in the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 seasons. Preliminary projections based on recent World Championship results in 2023 and 2024 suggest Norway remains the dominant force, particularly in biathlon and cross-country skiing. Germany continues to show strength in luge, bobsleigh, and ski jumping. The United States is aiming for a rebound, with strong teams developing in figure skating, freestyle skiing, and snowboarding. Canada remains a powerhouse in team sports like ice hockey and curling. The final composition of teams, especially in sports with quota allocations, and the form of key athletes in the winter of 2025-2026 will determine the ultimate outcome.
Based on recent performances, Germany is often considered a slight favorite for second place due to its consistent strength across sliding sports, ski jumping, and biathlon. However, the United States, Canada, and potentially China are viewed as strong contenders, making the market highly competitive.
The official IOC tie-breaker, used by this market, first considers the total number of medals (gold, silver, and bronze). The country with more total medals ranks higher. If still tied, the country whose name comes first alphabetically is ranked higher.
At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, Germany finished second with 12 gold medals. The United States and China tied for third with 8 golds each, with the US ranked third due to winning more total medals (25 to China's 15).
While possible, it is considered unlikely. Historical host nation boosts vary, but Italy's best modern result was 5 golds in 2006. Challenging for second would require a dramatic increase, likely exceeding 10 gold medals, against established winter sports powers.
Sports with many medal events are crucial. Biathlon (11 events), cross-country skiing (12 events), and speed skating (14 events) offer the most gold medals. Success in these high-volume sports, along with wins in traditional strengths like alpine skiing and figure skating, typically defines the top of the medal table.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 31% |
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 | Poly | 10% |
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 | Poly | 2% |
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 | Poly | 1% |
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