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Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Name: Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.24M

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Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $1.24M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.24M

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Poly	2%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (76 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompani

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with it"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $471.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $38.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $471.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

75d 9h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

2¢

Polymarket

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Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

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Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

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Events (1)