This prediction market asks whether the United States will formally declare war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025. A formal declaration of war requires a majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, followed by the president's signature, as outlined in Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution. This market specifically excludes authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions unless they are accompanied by a formal declaration. The question arises amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, particularly regarding the disputed 2024 presidential election, U.S. sanctions, and Venezuela's political and economic crisis. Since 2019, the U.S. has recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate interim president, though that recognition has waned. The Biden administration has maintained sanctions while exploring diplomatic channels. The likelihood of a formal declaration of war is extremely low, given that the U.S. has not formally declared war since World War II, with the last declaration occurring in 1942 against Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Instead, modern U.S. military engagements have been authorized through AUMFs, such as the 2001 AUMF against terrorists and the 2002 AUMF against Iraq. The narrow two-week window in December 2025 makes a declaration even more improbable, as it would require rapid congressional action during a period typically focused on budget negotiations and year-end legislative business. However, speculation about a potential conflict has been fueled by Venezuela's military buildup, U.S. naval exercises in the Caribbean, and hawkish statements from some U.S. politicians. The market reflects a niche but politically charged scenario that captures broader anxieties about U.S. interventionism and the stability of Latin American democracies.

Historical Context

The United States has formally declared war only 11 times in its history, all between 1812 and 1942. The last declarations were against Japan (December 8, 1941), Germany and Italy (December 11, 1941), and Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania (June 5, 1942). Since then, every major U.S. military engagement has been conducted under authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs) or United Nations resolutions. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution authorized the Vietnam War, the 1991 AUMF authorized the Gulf War, the 2001 AUMF authorized the war in Afghanistan, and the 2002 AUMF authorized the Iraq War. None of these were formal declarations of war. The last time Congress seriously considered a formal declaration was in 1991 during the Gulf War, but it ultimately passed an AUMF instead. U.S.-Venezuela relations have been strained since Hugo Chávez took office in 1999. Chávez nationalized oil assets, criticized U.S. foreign policy, and aligned with Cuba and Iran. Under Maduro, the relationship deteriorated further after the 2013 presidential election and the 2014 protests. In 2017, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials, and in 2019, the U.S. recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president following disputed elections. The U.S. also imposed oil sanctions in 2019, cutting off Venezuela's primary export. In 2023, the Biden administration temporarily eased some sanctions after the Barbados Agreement between Maduro and the opposition, but reimposed them in 2024 after Maduro failed to meet electoral commitments. The 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, held on July 28, 2024, resulted in Maduro claiming victory amid widespread allegations of fraud. The U.S. and many other countries rejected the results and recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the legitimate winner. Protests erupted, and the Maduro government cracked down, arresting opposition figures and journalists. The U.S. responded with additional sanctions and has since maintained a hardline stance.