Mississippi Senate margin of victory
K 119.3K contracts
1
15
Mississippi Senate margin of victory
K 119.3K contracts
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Colom, 0.1+ pts at 97.7%.
Kalshi
- Colom, 0.1+ pts97.7%
- Colom, 0.2+ pts97.4%
- Colom, 0.4+ pts84.5%
- Colom, 0.3+ pts83%
- Colom, 0.5+ pts77.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 119.3K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On November 3, 2026 If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Republican Party's margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi reaches each stated threshold. The margin is "the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins" [1]. The rules also state that "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin" [1]. Each listed market asks whether the margin will be "at least" a given number of percentage points, so these are threshold contracts rather than the range contracts described in the example text [1]. The event "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
The rule text refers to "On November 3, 2026," but the market records list an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The same excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied." The evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should check the platform's current listing before relying on either date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-28T12:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T17:52:27Z [1]. These are past values, not live quotes. The Yes prices were: at least 1 point, 0.8755; 3 points, 0.77; 5 points, 0.665; 7 points, 0.515; 9 points, 0.335; 10 points, 0.305; 11 points, 0.255; 13 points, 0.155; 15 points, 0.0765; 17 points, 0.0435; 19 points, 0.0265; and 21 points, 0.022 [1]. Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The snapshot shows this pattern but does not explain it.
This is a partial sample. The coverage record shows 12 included markets out of 13 total for this event [1]. Included markets were chosen by highest Yes price, then volume [1]. The evidence does not identify the omitted market or its price, so no conclusion about it is supported. The thresholds are also not evenly spaced, with 2 and 4 points absent, so readers should not infer prices between listed thresholds.
No markets from other platforms were supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no trader counts, no explanation of price movements, and no current election results. Volume is not shown in the market records, so it cannot be used as a measure of liquidity. The reported end date conflicts with the rule text, and the excerpt does not resolve the conflict.
References
- Kalshi: Mississippi Senate margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Kalshi contract about the margin of victory for the Republican Party in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi. The event is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask only who wins. It asks by how many percentage points the Republican Party wins or loses, and it is organized as a set of threshold markets, each asking whether the margin will reach a given level. Under the rules, the margin is the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the percentage received by the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind it. If the Republican Party loses, the margin is calculated against the first-place finisher and is negative [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The rules also address uncontested races, where the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast when raw votes are the measure [1]. The threshold ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, and no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1]. The rules give a concrete example: a margin of exactly 6 percent falls in the 6 to 7 percent range, while 5.99999 percent falls in the 5 to 6 percent range [1]. Multiple listings of the same party are combined before the margin is calculated [1]. The rules say the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved market records also show an end date of November 3, 2027 [1], which is a provider field rather than an announced event date, and the rules do not supply a listed end time [1].
Historical Context
Mississippi has held earlier Senate and presidential contests on the same federal election cycle structure. The 2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate, concurrently with the presidential election and other federal and state contests [2]. The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on November 5, 2024, and Mississippi's six Electoral College votes were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 census [3]. These pages describe past elections and do not describe the 2026 race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the Republican Party is expected to win, not only whether it wins. Because the market is split into thresholds, each contract represents a separate question about whether the margin reaches a given percentage point level [1]. Traders and readers can compare how the threshold prices move across levels, which shows where the saved snapshot places the most and least likely margins. The rules' treatment of ties, uncontested races, rounding, and early closure determines how each threshold resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind it if the party wins, or the first-place candidate if it loses. A loss produces a negative margin [1].
What happens if the race is tied or uncontested?
A tie for first place produces a margin of 0. In an uncontested race where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total votes cast for raw-vote markets [1].
How are the threshold ranges applied?
Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied. A margin of exactly 6 percent resolves in the 6 to 7 percent range [1].
When could the market close early?
The market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Mississippi Senate margin of victory
K 763.5K contracts
Closest Senate race in 2026?
K 3.40M contracts
Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?
K 44.5K contracts
Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $5.4KNorth Carolina Senate margin of victory
K 1.15M contractsGeorgia Senate margin of victory
K 1.45M contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
