The prediction market topic 'Who will win the next Spanish general election?' focuses on forecasting the political party or formal pre-election coalition that will secure the most seats in the Congress of Deputies during the next scheduled national election, currently anticipated for 2027. This market resolves based on the official certification by Spain's Central Electoral Commission (Junta Electoral Central), with the winner defined as the entity obtaining the highest number of parliamentary seats, irrespective of whether it subsequently forms a governing coalition. The question emerges against a backdrop of significant political fragmentation in Spain, where no single party has achieved an absolute majority in recent elections, leading to complex and often unstable coalition governments. Interest in this market stems from its implications for Spain's domestic policy direction, its role within the European Union, and the ongoing competition between the established center-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the center-right People's Party (PP), alongside the influential roles of regional and newer political forces. The 2027 election will serve as a critical test for the durability of the current PSOE-led coalition government and the potential for a political realignment.

Historical Context

Spain's modern electoral history has been characterized by a gradual shift from a stable two-party system dominated by the PSOE and PP toward extreme multiparty fragmentation. This transformation began in earnest following the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Indignados movement, which eroded trust in traditional parties. The breakthrough of new parties was solidified in the December 2015 general election, which ended the two-party system. For the first time, Podemos and Ciudadanos entered parliament in force, denying either major party a majority. This resulted in a ten-month political deadlock and a repeat election in 2016. The most recent elections have further entrenched this fragmentation. The November 2019 election saw the PSOE win but require a coalition with Podemos, marking Spain's first national coalition government since the restoration of democracy. The July 2023 election produced an even more fractured parliament, with the PP winning a plurality but unable to secure support from enough parties to govern, leading to Pedro Sánchez forming a renewed and even more complex coalition with Sumar and dependent on Catalan and Basque nationalist parties. This historical arc demonstrates the increasing difficulty of forming stable governments and sets the precedent for the 2027 contest.

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