Events
GroupKALSHI
Newcastle vs Eindhoven
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
0
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
3
markets · $1.75K
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $1.75K
100%
Kalshi leads
$1.75K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
NEW vs PSV (Jan 21) If X wins the Newcastle vs Eindhoven professional UCL soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Newcastle vs Eindhoven professional UCL soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves
Prediction markets currently price a Newcastle win at 68%, translating to an implied probability of approximately 2-to-1 odds in their favor. This suggests the consensus views a Newcastle victory as the most likely outcome, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The market for a PSV Eindhoven win is priced at 22%, while a draw sits at 10%. With only $2,000 in total volume across the three outcome markets, liquidity is thin, indicating this is an early, speculative market rather than one with heavy informed trading.
The primary factor is the perceived strength of the Premier League versus the Eredivisie, with English clubs generally considered to have greater financial resources and squad depth in European competition. Newcastle's potential trajectory under their current ownership and management suggests a project aiming for consistent Champions League qualification by 2026. Secondly, home advantage is a critical component, as this fixture is listed at St. James' Park. Historical precedent in the Champions League group stage heavily favors home sides, a factor likely baked into the current price. Finally, the market may be reflecting a valuation of squad-building timelines, anticipating Newcastle's roster will be more seasoned for top European competition compared to PSV's likely model of developing and selling talent.
The most significant catalyst will be the actual draw and group context in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League season. If this match becomes a decisive fixture for knockout qualification, the odds could tighten considerably. Team form and injuries in the months and weeks leading up to January 2026 will cause major price movements. A key risk to the current pricing is if PSV maintains its reputation as a prolific talent incubator, potentially fielding a squad with several breakout stars by that date. Conversely, if Newcastle fails to consistently qualify for Champions League football in the intervening seasons, their price would likely fall from this current premium.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a UEFA Champions League group stage soccer match between Newcastle United Football Club of England and PSV Eindhoven of the Netherlands, scheduled for January 21, 2026. The market specifically resolves based on the result after the standard 90 minutes of regulation play plus any added stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A separate market exists to resolve a tie outcome. The match represents a significant fixture in European club football's premier competition, pitting two historic clubs from major domestic leagues against each other. Interest stems from the competitive nature of the Champions League, where group stage points are crucial for advancement to the knockout rounds, and from the distinct tactical styles and passionate fanbases associated with English and Dutch football. The scheduling in January places it during a congested period of the European football calendar, potentially impacting team fitness and selection. Bettors and analysts monitor such matches for insights into team form, managerial strategies, and the financial implications for clubs progressing in the tournament.
The historical context of this fixture is rooted in the broader history of both clubs in European competition. Newcastle United's European history includes a notable run to the UEFA Cup semifinals in 2004 and participation in the Champions League group stages in the 2002/03 and 2003/04 seasons under Sir Bobby Robson. Their return to the Champions League in 2023/24 after a two-decade absence marked a new era following the club's 2021 acquisition by a Saudi-led consortium. PSV Eindhoven boasts a richer European pedigree, having won the European Cup (now Champions League) in 1988 under Guus Hiddink, a team featuring iconic players like Ruud Gullit and Ronald Koeman. PSV has been a consistent participant in European competitions, frequently winning the Eredivisie and regularly featuring in the Champions League group stages. While direct competitive meetings between the two clubs are rare, the match represents a clash between England's financially powerful Premier League and the Netherlands' historically talent-producing Eredivisie. The last time an English club played a competitive match at the Philips Stadion was in 2022, when Arsenal defeated PSV in the UEFA Europa League.
The outcome of this match carries significant sporting and financial consequences. For the clubs, securing three points in the Champions League group stage is vital for progression to the lucrative knockout rounds. UEFA's financial distribution model means each group stage win in the 2024/25 season was worth approximately €2.8 million in prize money, with further millions available for advancing. For the players and coaches, performance on this stage influences individual reputations, transfer values, and international selection prospects. For the cities and fanbases, it represents a major cultural event, boosting local economy through tourism and fostering community pride. The match also serves as a barometer for the relative strength of the English and Dutch domestic leagues in European competition, influencing coefficient rankings that determine future Champions League berths. A positive result for either side can provide a psychological boost for the remainder of their domestic campaigns.
As of late 2024, this match is a future fixture scheduled for the latter stages of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group phase. The specific draw that will place Newcastle and PSV in the same group has not yet occurred, as the qualifying process for the 2025/26 tournament will unfold throughout 2025. Both clubs are currently focused on their respective 2024/25 domestic and European campaigns. Their performances in the 2024/25 season will influence their UEFA club coefficients and subsequent seeding for the 2025/26 Champions League draw, which will ultimately determine the group composition and this specific fixture date. The January 21, 2026 date is a placeholder based on the typical Champions League matchweek calendar.
The match is scheduled to be played at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven, Netherlands, which is the home ground of PSV Eindhoven. This gives PSV the home advantage for this particular fixture.
Prediction markets typically have specific rules for postponed matches. The market would likely remain open until the match is conclusively played, resolving based on the result of the rescheduled fixture. The official rules of the prediction market platform would provide the definitive resolution procedure.
Newcastle can qualify for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League by finishing in a top-four position in the 2024/25 English Premier League, or by winning the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League or Europa League. Their participation is not guaranteed and depends on their performance in the ongoing season.
Historically, PSV has a mixed record against English opposition in European competition. Notable results include eliminating Arsenal from the Champions League in the 2006/07 season, but they have also suffered defeats, such as those to Leicester City in 2016 and Arsenal more recently in the Europa League.
Yes, the market resolves based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, regardless of how the goals are scored. Own goals count toward the final score just like any other goal, as determined by the match officials and UEFA.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Newcastle vs Eindhoven Winner? (Newcastle) | Kalshi | 68% |
Newcastle vs Eindhoven Winner? (Tie) | Kalshi | 17% |
Newcastle vs Eindhoven Winner? (Eindhoven) | Kalshi | 16% |
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