Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market, listed on Polymarket, asks whether Dogecoin moves up or down during a single five-minute window: 1:40AM to 1:45AM ET on October 20. According to the rules, it "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A different exchange price, or a Dogecoin price quoted against another asset, would not settle this contract. Any comparison with other Dogecoin markets should account for that difference in wording.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should check the UTC timestamp when comparing against other contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:00.470Z [1]. The saved status was "active" [1]. These are times of observation and retrieval, not the contract's closing time or its resolution.
The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. Because these are snapshot prices, they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either side.
The sample covers one market out of one in this saved event, and it is not a partial sample [1]. The provider's own sample warning notes that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since this is a binary Up or Down contract, the two prices are the only outcomes recorded here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the market's price after the retrieval time, so the 0.5 figures may have changed. It also does not show the actual TWAP values or the starting price for the window, so the outcome is unknown. The record gives no explanation for why the prices are at this level, and no basis for judging whether they are accurate. A matching price on a different platform or contract would not by itself create an arbitrage opportunity, because the rules, timing, and data sources may differ.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval Dogecoin contract listed on Polymarket, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET" [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. The source names the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream as the reference for the market [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink TWAP stream for the DOGE/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore not treat prices on other exchanges or data feeds as determining the outcome. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z [1]. The contract is marked active in the saved record [1]. The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:00Z [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured. They do not mean the contract has closed or resolved, and the outcome is not known from this record. At the observation time, the two outcomes were each priced at 0.5 [1]. A price in this saved record is a snapshot of the displayed price at that moment. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability of an Up or Down result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a direction over a five-minute window, from 1:40 AM to 1:45 AM ET on October 20, based on an averaged price rather than a single price at one instant [1]. Because the result compares the TWAP with the price at the start of the range, the outcome depends on how the average over the window sits relative to the opening level [1]. The rules tie that comparison to one named data stream, so the contract's result is defined by that feed's values [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Why does the contract use a TWAP instead of a single price?
The rules specify a time-weighted average price over the range in the title, generated by Chainlink [1]. The source describes the measure but does not explain the reasoning behind choosing it.
Do prices on other exchanges affect the result?
The rules say the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for DOGE/USD, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the displayed price of 0.5 for each outcome mean the market expects a 50 percent chance?
The saved record shows both outcomes at 0.5 at the observation time [1]. That is a price snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability, so it should not be read as a forecast.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.