Market snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Texas Governor: margin of victory

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K 48.4K contracts

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Texas Governor: margin of victory

Vol

K 48.4K contracts

Events

Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Greg Abbott, 2-4% at 34.5%.

Kalshi

Greg Abbott, 2-4%34.5%
Greg Abbott, 6-8%33%
Gina Hinojosa, 0-2%29.5%
Gina Hinojosa, 2-4%24%
Greg Abbott, 0-2%23%

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11 markets tracked

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Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	34.5%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 6% and 8%?	Kalshi	33.0%
Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	29.5%
Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	24.0%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	23.0%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	22.5%
Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	6.5%
Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be at least 6%?	Kalshi	5.0%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 10% and 12%?	Kalshi	3.0%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 8% and 10%?	Kalshi	2.5%
Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be at least 12%?	Kalshi	2.5%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

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AI Analysis

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K 48.4K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is X Y Z 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Texas Governor: margin of victory
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 48.4K contracts
Coverage: 11 of 11 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be at least 6%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GHIN-P6; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 459 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is at or above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GHIN-P5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 459 contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GHIN-P3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 12.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 24.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GHIN-P1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 29.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Gina Hinojosa minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Gina Hinojosa if Gina Hinojosa wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Gina Hinojosa loses. If Gina Hinojosa wins, the margin will be positive; if Gina Hinojosa loses, the margin will be negative; if Gina Hinojosa ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Gina Hinojosa runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 8% and 10%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P9; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 15.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 8% to 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 6% and 8%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P7; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 33.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 22.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be at least 12%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is at or above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 10% and 12%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P11; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 10% to 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGENERALMOV-GOVPARTYTX-26-GABB-P1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov-govpartytx-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 508.86 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Greg Abbott in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Greg Abbott minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Greg Abbott if Greg Abbott wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Greg Abbott loses. If Greg Abbott wins, the margin will be positive; if Greg Abbott loses, the margin will be negative; if Greg Abbott ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Greg Abbott runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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