GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

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US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

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5 markets tracked

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?	Kalshi	38%
Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?	Kalshi	35%
Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?	Kalshi	12%
Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?	Kalshi	10%
Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

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38%

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About This Event

December 2026 If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is between X and Y as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month. The market will resolve based on the first value published for December 2026. Later revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. If Trading Economics is unavailable or does not publish the rele

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is between X and Y as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month. The market will resolve based on the first value published for December 2026. Later revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. If Trading Economics is unavailable or does not publish the rele

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is at least 62.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month. The marke"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is between 61.0% and 61.4%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month.

KALSHI

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is between 61.5% and 61.9%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month.

KALSHI

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is between 60.5% and 60.9%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month.

KALSHI

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is below 60.5%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month. The market w

KALSHI

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

If the US labor force participation rate for December 2026 is at least 62.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Trading Economics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “year-end 2026” means the December 2026 reference month. The marke

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bb9s-P" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026"></iframe>

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US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

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Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

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Events (1)

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

Markets (5)

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

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Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.0% and 61.4%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 61.5% and 61.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be between 60.5% and 60.9%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be below 60.5%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

Will US labor force participation rate for December 2026 be at least 62.0%?

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