Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US retail sales in September

Total Volume

$8.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US retail sales in September

Vol

$8.05K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.05K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.05K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?	Kalshi	92%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?	Kalshi	84%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	70%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	55%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	35%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.6%?	Kalshi	23%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.8%?	Kalshi	20%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	10%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.2%?	Kalshi	7%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.4%?	Kalshi	5%
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.6%?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$8.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US retail sales in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 1.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $332
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $389
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $912
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US retail sales in September

Volume$8.05K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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37¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bbEs5-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US retail sales in September"></iframe>

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US retail sales in September

US retail sales in September

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Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US retail sales in September

Markets (11)

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

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Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US retail sales in September

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

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