S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

Name: S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?
End: 2026-01-29T21:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$164.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $164.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $164.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$164.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 29, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $164.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.8K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.90)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2026): Vol $164.2K
  DATA: [Up: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [Down: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

2¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)