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| Market | Platform | Price |
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Will Trump waive taxes for people earning under $150k? (Before 2027) | Kalshi | 8% |
Will Trump waive taxes for people earning under $150k? (Before June 2026) | Kalshi | 5% |
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Before 2026 If the President or Congress waives or ends income taxes for any year on persons earning less than $150,000 a year before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This includes an executive order or action directing income taxes for households earning less than $150,000 be waived, or equivalently, that the income tax is foregone, eliminated, or nullified, for any year, or a bill becoming law which reduces the federal income tax to 0% for those earning less than $150,000 for any year.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to former President Donald Trump eliminating federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000 before 2027. On Kalshi, the leading contract is trading at approximately 10 cents, implying just a 10% chance of this policy occurring. This price indicates the market views such a sweeping tax change as highly unlikely, though not entirely impossible. With only about $19,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting this remains a speculative niche topic rather than a heavily traded consensus view.
The low probability is driven by significant political and fiscal realities. First, the policy would represent an unprecedented reduction in federal revenue. The Tax Policy Center estimates that in 2023, about 65% of federal revenue came from individual income taxes. Eliminating this for a vast majority of earners would create a multi-trillion dollar deficit hole, making it a non-starter for many fiscally conscious lawmakers, even within a Republican-controlled Congress.
Second, Trump's stated economic policy priorities have not included this specific proposal. While he has advocated for extending the 2017 tax cuts and has discussed ideas like an "all-tariff policy" to replace some revenue, his campaign platform and recent remarks lack a concrete plan to zero out income taxes for this income bracket. Markets are pricing based on his actual agenda, not hypothetical promises.
The odds could shift with a clear, formal policy announcement. If Trump were to explicitly endorse this as a core 2024 campaign pledge, the market probability would likely increase. However, any significant upward movement would remain constrained until after the November 2024 election, as the policy's feasibility hinges entirely on a Trump victory coupled with Republican control of both the House and Senate.
Even in that scenario, the primary catalyst for a major price surge would be the introduction of specific legislation in 2025. Markets will closely monitor the composition of the new Congress and any draft bills. Given the enormous fiscal implications, significant opposition from deficit hawks and challenges in budget reconciliation rules present substantial hurdles, meaning the probability is likely to remain subdued barring a dramatic and unexpected political shift.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic addresses whether former President Donald Trump will successfully implement a policy eliminating federal income taxes for individuals earning under $150,000 annually before 2026. The resolution criteria are specific: the market resolves to 'Yes' if, before the specified date, either the President issues an executive order or takes equivalent action to waive, eliminate, or nullify income taxes for this income bracket for any tax year, or if Congress passes and enacts a law setting the federal income tax rate to 0% for these earners. This represents a radical departure from current U.S. tax policy and would constitute one of the most significant tax cuts in American history. The topic has gained prominence as part of broader political discourse on tax reform, economic relief, and campaign promises ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Interest stems from its potential to dramatically alter federal revenue, household finances, and the social contract regarding taxation and government services. Recent discussions have been fueled by Trump's public remarks and policy platforms from associated political groups, though no formal legislative proposal has been advanced in Congress. The feasibility, economic impact, and political pathway for such a measure are central to the debate surrounding this market.
The modern U.S. federal income tax was established by the 16th Amendment in 1913. Since then, the structure has been progressive, with tax liability increasing with income. Major reforms, like the Reagan-era tax cuts of 1981 and 1986 or the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, have lowered rates and widened brackets but have never eliminated the tax entirely for a broad swath of earners. The closest historical precedent for a 'zero tax' bracket is the standard deduction and personal exemption, which shield a portion of income from taxation. For the 2024 tax year, the standard deduction for a single filer is $14,600, effectively creating a 0% rate on income below that threshold. The proposal in this market dramatically expands that concept to encompass all income up to $150,000. Politically, the idea of abolishing the income tax has roots in libertarian and some conservative movements, but it has never been a mainstream policy of either major party. The proposal also echoes Trump's 2016 primary promise to eliminate the federal income tax for single earners making less than $25,000, a pledge that was not enacted during his presidency. The current discussion represents a significant escalation in scale and cost from past campaign rhetoric.
The implementation of this policy would represent a fundamental transformation of the federal government's revenue base. Income taxes accounted for approximately $2.2 trillion, or about 52% of total federal revenues in fiscal year 2023. Eliminating them for a large majority of taxpayers would necessitate unprecedented spending cuts, massive increases in other taxes like tariffs or a national sales tax, or a historic expansion of the federal deficit. For individuals, it could mean a substantial increase in take-home pay, potentially stimulating consumer spending but also raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Social Security and Medicare, which are funded by payroll and income taxes. Politically, it would redefine the debate over fairness and progressivity in the tax code, likely deepening partisan divisions. Socially, it could alter the perceived connection between citizens and federal services, potentially weakening public support for federal programs if taxpayers feel they no longer directly contribute to them. The downstream consequences would ripple through every aspect of the economy and the relationship between Americans and their government.
As of late 2024, the proposal to eliminate income taxes for those earning under $150,000 remains a campaign trail idea and has not been formalized into legislative text. Following his remarks in Las Vegas in June, Trump has referenced the concept periodically but has not released a detailed policy white paper. The Republican Party's official 2024 platform does not include this specific proposal, instead focusing on extending the 2017 tax cuts. In Congress, no lawmaker has introduced a bill matching the market's criteria. The political reality is that with Democrats controlling the Senate and White House, and with concerns over the deficit even among some Republicans, there is no active legislative pathway for such a bill before the end of the current Congress in January 2025. The topic's status is therefore one of political speculation and future campaign promise, not active legislation.
Trump has discussed the idea publicly, notably at a June 2024 rally, but has not released formal, detailed legislative language or a specific plan. It remains a campaign trail concept rather than a submitted bill.
Proponents, including Trump advisor Stephen Moore, have suggested replacing the revenue with increased tariffs on imported goods. Economists widely criticize this, arguing tariffs are taxes on consumers and would not fully offset the massive revenue loss, leading to larger deficits or spending cuts.
Based on IRS and Census data, approximately 85-90% of U.S. tax filers have adjusted gross incomes below $150,000. This means the policy would apply to the overwhelming majority of American workers.
No. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act significantly reduced individual income tax rates and doubled the standard deduction, but it did not create a 0% bracket for income up to $150,000. His 2016 campaign floated a smaller version for those earning under $25,000, which was not enacted.
Legal experts are highly skeptical. The power to levy taxes is explicitly granted to Congress in the Constitution. An executive order attempting to nullify congressionally mandated taxes would face immediate legal challenges and would likely be ruled an unconstitutional overreach of presidential authority.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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