Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the price of Ethereum over a five-minute window in the title, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) for the range "is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules specify the ETH/USD TWAP data stream and state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot-price or other-venue contract should expect different measurement rules.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a confirmed resolution time. The rules do not show a resolved outcome in this snapshot.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T18:54:46Z [1]. These are provider and retrieval times, not live prices. The contract was listed as active in that record [1].
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices for the two outcomes of one binary contract. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00, so the snapshot shows no separate pricing for a third outcome. Because only these two outcomes are recorded, the snapshot does not indicate how much trading occurred or how deep the book was, and volume is not included in the evidence.
The coverage record lists one market in the saved event, with partialSample set to false [1]. Within this saved record, the sample is complete. The evidence does not establish that the provider lists every possible market on this question. No other platform's contract is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit near even, and it does not say whether they changed. It does not show the Ethereum price at the start of the range or any TWAP value, so the Up and Down prices cannot be tied to a measured outcome. The snapshot is from October 25, 2026, roughly one hour before the retrieval time, and it cannot be treated as the current price. Whether the contract has resolved, and to which outcome, is not established by the supplied record.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-horizon crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. It concerns a five-minute window, the time range named in the title [1]. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the starting price, not between the price at the end of the window and the starting price [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink [1]. The rules state that the market concerns this specific Chainlink data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. This matters because a price on another exchange or venue would not determine the outcome under these rules [1]. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-10-26T17:15:00Z [1]. That is the listed end time of the contract, not a separate announced event. The contract's status in the saved record is active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Ethereum price in a specific five-minute window, as reported in one Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It is a narrow question about short-term price direction under defined rules. Because it is tied to a single named data stream, the result depends on that feed's rules rather than on the broader market [1]. The saved price snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 at the observation time of 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price source is used?
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market is about that Chainlink data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the outcome depend on the price at the end of the window?
The stated rule compares the time-weighted average over the range with the starting price, so the rule text does not describe the end-of-window price as the test [1].
Do the saved prices show how likely each outcome is?
The saved prices are snapshots from one observation time. The supplied evidence does not establish that they are verified probabilities or that they reflect executable trades [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.