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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?

Name: Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
End: 2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$546.91K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?

Vol

$546.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $546.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $546.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?	Poly	1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	Poly	1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	Poly	1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?	Poly	0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?	Poly	0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$546.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $546.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 26.66)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $61.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $67.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $118.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $33.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $114.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $152.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy