This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, 2026. The market resolves based on official weather data from Wunderground's historical records for the specific weather station at the airport, which serves as the primary climatological reporting site for the Seattle metropolitan area. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the day's peak reading, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. This type of market exemplifies the growing use of prediction platforms to aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts on specific, measurable outcomes in climate and weather. The interest stems from both meteorological curiosity and the practical implications of winter weather in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's January climate is characterized by cool, wet conditions, but significant variability can occur due to atmospheric river events, cold Arctic air intrusions, or persistent inversion layers that trap cold air in the Puget Sound basin. Accurate temperature predictions for specific dates are valuable for urban planning, energy demand forecasting, and agricultural planning in the region. Recent years have shown increased volatility in Pacific Northwest winter temperatures, linked to broader climate patterns, making such forecasts both more challenging and more consequential.

Historical Context

Seattle's winter climate has historically been moderated by the Pacific Ocean, leading to relatively mild temperatures compared to other northern U.S. cities. The official recording site moved to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in 1945, providing a consistent, long-term record. Analysis of this record shows that January 15 has experienced a wide range of high temperatures. The all-time record high for the date is 61°F, set in 1981, while the record low maximum (the coldest high temperature for the date) is 24°F, recorded in 1950. The period from 1970 to 2000 established a climatological normal for January highs in the mid-40s Fahrenheit. However, the 21st century has shown a marked increase in variability and a warming trend. For instance, January 2015 was notably warm, while January 2024 brought a significant cold snap with temperatures well below freezing for multiple days. This historical context is vital because it defines the plausible bounds for the prediction. The frequency of both extreme warm and cold January days appears to be increasing, a pattern climate scientists attribute to a warming Arctic and changing jet stream patterns, making historical precedent both a guide and a potential pitfall for forecasters.

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