The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of humanity's proximity to global catastrophe, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1947. The clock's hands are adjusted periodically based on assessments of existential threats, primarily from nuclear weapons and climate change, but increasingly incorporating emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and biological threats. A movement of ten seconds or more represents a significant shift in the Bulletin's assessment of global risk, indicating either substantial deterioration or improvement in humanity's security situation. The current setting of 90 seconds to midnight, established in January 2023, represents the closest the clock has ever been to symbolic doom. Recent years have seen unprecedented volatility in the clock's movement, with the 2020 adjustment moving the clock from two minutes to 100 seconds to midnight, followed by further advances to 90 seconds in 2023. This market specifically tracks whether the next adjustment will constitute a major shift of ten seconds or more in either direction. Such movements historically correlate with major geopolitical events, technological breakthroughs, or significant policy changes affecting global security. The interest in this prediction market stems from the Doomsday Clock's status as a respected barometer of existential risk, maintained by Nobel laureates and leading scientists. Market participants are essentially betting on whether experts will perceive the global risk landscape as having fundamentally changed. The clock's movements generate international media coverage and often influence policy discussions, making predictions about its adjustments relevant to understanding expert consensus on global threats. Factors that could trigger a ten-second movement include escalation of nuclear conflicts, breakthrough climate agreements, major advances in AI governance, or catastrophic biological events. The market's resolution depends on the Bulletin's annual announcement, typically made in January, when the Science and Security Board assesses developments across multiple threat domains before deciding on the clock's new position.

Historical Context

The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by artist Martyl Langsdorf and Bulletin editor Eugene Rabinowitch, initially set at seven minutes to midnight. Its original purpose was to warn about nuclear annihilation following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The clock remained relatively stable through the 1950s, with its first major movement occurring in 1953 when the United States and Soviet Union tested thermonuclear weapons, advancing the clock to two minutes to midnight, the closest it would come for decades. Throughout the Cold War, the clock reflected nuclear tensions, reaching three minutes to midnight during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, though this wasn't officially reflected until the 1963 adjustment. The farthest the clock has ever been from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991 following the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and dissolution of the Soviet Union. This period of optimism was short-lived, as nuclear proliferation concerns brought the clock back to 14 minutes by 1995. The 21st century has seen the clock incorporate climate change as a major factor, with the 2007 adjustment explicitly citing this threat for the first time. The clock reached two minutes to midnight in 2018 and 2019, matching the Cold War peak, before advancing to 100 seconds in 2020, breaking the minute barrier for the first time. The 2023 adjustment to 90 seconds marked another unprecedented advance, reflecting multiple converging crises including the Ukraine war, climate disasters, and biological threats.

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