GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

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Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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9 markets tracked

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	63%
Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	34%
Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	2%
Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%
Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%
Will Phil Baruth be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jill Krowinski be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%
Will Becca Balint be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%
Will David Zuckerman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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63%

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About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Charity Clark wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Charity Clark wins the party's nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Phil Baruth be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jill Krowinski be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will David Zuckerman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Becca Balint be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

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KALSHI

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.0¢No 37.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

If Aly Richards wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Aly Richards wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

If Amanda Janoo wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close after Amanda Janoo wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.7¢No 98.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

If Mike Pieciak wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Mike Pieciak wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

If Charity Clark wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Charity Clark wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

If Esther Charlestin wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Esther Charlestin wins the party's nomination.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bt0QhU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?"></iframe>

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Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

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Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

Markets (2)

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

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Discussion

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Charity Clark be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Will Esther Charlestin be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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