$183.78K
1
7
$183.78K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
During Trump's term If the 51st state is any part X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to any part of Greenland becoming the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. On Kalshi, the leading contract for this specific outcome is trading at approximately 7 cents, implying just a 7% chance. This pricing indicates the market views statehood for Greenland during a potential Trump term as a highly speculative long shot, not a core expectation. The moderate trading volume of $179,000 suggests informed interest in the topic, but the low price reflects strong consensus against the event occurring.
Two primary factors are suppressing the odds. First, the immense political and constitutional complexity of U.S. statehood acts as a formidable barrier. Admission requires a simple majority vote in both the House and Senate, a high hurdle for any candidate, let alone a non-contiguous territory with a distinct national identity. Second, while former President Donald Trump publicly expressed interest in purchasing Greenland in 2019, an idea met with swift rejection by the Danish government and Greenland's own leadership, the leap from a dismissed acquisition idea to actual statehood is vast. The market is pricing in the reality that Greenlandic public opinion strongly favors independence within the Kingdom of Denmark, not annexation by the United States.
The odds could see upward movement only from a dramatic, unforeseen shift in the geopolitical landscape. A concrete catalyst would be the initiation of formal, bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Denmark on sovereignty, coupled with a verified, significant pro-statehood movement within Greenland itself. A change in the Danish government's absolute stance against discussing sovereignty could also act as a minor catalyst. Conversely, a firm, public disavowal of the idea from a potential second-term Trump administration would likely push probabilities even closer to zero. The market will remain highly sensitive to any official statements from Washington, Copenhagen, or Nuuk regarding Greenland's political future.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic addresses whether a 51st state will be admitted to the United States during a potential second term of former President Donald Trump, which would span from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any territory becomes a state before the end of that term. The question engages with the complex constitutional and political process of statehood, which requires approval from both houses of Congress and a presidential signature. Recent political discourse has revived long-standing debates about granting statehood to U.S. territories, most prominently Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, with arguments centered on representation, partisan advantage, and the rights of American citizens residing in these jurisdictions. Interest in this topic stems from its potential to permanently alter the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and the Electoral College, making it a subject of intense strategic calculation for both major political parties. The topic's inclusion in a prediction market reflects its status as a measurable political event with significant uncertainty, attracting attention from political analysts, historians, and those interested in American governance.
The process of adding states to the Union is defined by Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, which grants Congress the power to admit new states. The last states admitted were Alaska and Hawaii in 1959, ending a 47-year period without new states. Historically, statehood has often been driven by political considerations, such as maintaining a balance between free and slave states in the 19th century. The most recent serious statehood efforts concern territories acquired in the late 19th and early 20th centuries: Puerto Rico was ceded to the U.S. by Spain in 1898, and the District of Columbia was established as the federal district by the Residence Act of 1790. Puerto Rico has held six non-binding referendums on its political status since 1967, with the 2020 vote showing a majority for statehood, though turnout was contested. For D.C., the modern statehood movement gained significant momentum after the district was granted presidential electors by the 23rd Amendment in 1961 and limited home rule in 1973. The historical precedent suggests that statehood requires a unique alignment of political will, partisan advantage, and public sentiment in both the territory and Congress.
The admission of a 51st state would be one of the most consequential acts of American governance in the 21st century, fundamentally reshaping the nation's political architecture. It would permanently alter the composition of the U.S. Senate, adding two new senators who could shift the balance of power on every major issue, from judicial confirmations to budgetary legislation. This has profound implications for partisan control and the legislative agenda for decades to come. Beyond politics, statehood carries immense symbolic and practical weight for the residents of the new state, granting them full voting representation in Congress, greater autonomy over local affairs, and a permanent, equal voice in national debates. The economic implications are also significant, as statehood typically brings increased federal funding, different tax structures, and altered eligibility for federal programs. The decision would also set a precedent for other U.S. territories, like Guam or the U.S. Virgin Islands, potentially reigniting debates about their political futures and America's relationship with its overseas possessions.
As of late 2024, the path to a 51st state remains politically blocked. In the 118th Congress (2023-2024), the Republican-controlled House has not advanced any statehood legislation, and the Democratic-led Senate has not brought it to the floor. The political dynamics are frozen pending the outcome of the 2024 elections, which will determine control of the White House and Congress for the 2025-2029 period. The Biden Administration supports D.C. statehood but has not made it a central legislative priority. In Puerto Rico, Governor Pierluisi continues to advocate for statehood, but the territory faces ongoing economic challenges and recovery from natural disasters, which consume political attention. The question is largely in a holding pattern, with all sides awaiting the electoral results that will define the political landscape for the next four years.
The process begins with a formal request or referendum from the territory. Congress must then pass an admission act via a simple majority in both the House and Senate. Finally, the President must sign the act into law. There is no constitutional requirement for a national referendum.
The District of Columbia was created as a federal district under the exclusive jurisdiction of Congress, as authorized by the Constitution (Article I, Section 8). This was intended to prevent any single state from hosting and exerting undue influence over the national government. The modern statehood movement seeks to shrink the federal district to a small core and admit the residential and commercial areas as a new state.
Yes, in a 2020 non-binding referendum, 52.5% of participating voters chose statehood. However, these referendums are not self-executing. The final decision rests with the U.S. Congress, which has not acted on the results. Previous referendums have yielded mixed results, with some supporting the current commonwealth status.
The proposed name in the Washington, D.C. Admission Act is 'State of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth.' This honors Frederick Douglass while maintaining the 'D.C.' abbreviation. The federal district would be reduced to a small enclave containing the Capitol, White House, Supreme Court, and other core federal buildings.
No. The President cannot create a state by executive order. The power to admit new states is vested solely in Congress by the U.S. Constitution. The President's role is limited to signing or vetoing the admission act passed by Congress.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will Puerto Rico be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Any part of Canada be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will D.C. be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Guam be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will any part of Colombia be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 2% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bw7JsC" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?"></iframe>