Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 24
PM $9.7K
1
5
Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 24
PM $9.7K
1
5
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $9.7K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 24, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which song holds the number one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled "Week of October 24, 2026" [1]. The source says Billboard charts reflect "data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday)" and that each chart is titled "Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)" [1]. Ties are broken "by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles" [1].
The market resolves "as soon as the relevant chart is published." If the chart "is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date," the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The wording therefore links resolution to chart publication, not to the listed end time.
Each song has its own Yes and No contract within one event [1]. Readers should compare these contracts as parts of a single field, not as independent forecasts.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:24:07.997Z [1]. These are the times for this saved record, not the present moment. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a separate field from the publication-based resolution rule, so the two should not be read as the same event.
In this snapshot, the Yes price for "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" is 0.9945, the highest of the five listed songs [1]. The other four Yes prices are 0.0035 or lower [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The coverage record shows five markets, all included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source also states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any conclusion should be limited to the five saved listings.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or whether these prices reflect meaningful liquidity. Volume is not an indicator of any of those things here. The evidence also does not show that the October 24 chart has been published, so the outcome is unresolved.
Readers should check the official Billboard chart and the provider's current status before relying on these figures.
References
- Polymarket: Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 24. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks which song will hold the number one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled "Week of October 24, 2026." According to the contract rules, Billboard updates the Hot 100 each Tuesday, sometimes on adjusted holiday schedules, using data from the previous Friday through Thursday. Each chart is titled with the date of the upcoming Saturday [1]. The contract resolves to the number one song on that specific chart, and ties are broken alphabetically by listed song title [1]. The market was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC, and its listed end time is 2026-10-21 at 03:59 UTC [1]. The end time is the provider's listed closing point for trading and is not the date the chart is published. According to the rules, the market resolves as soon as the relevant chart is published [1]. The provider's page describes the market as active at the observed time, but that observation is a historical snapshot and not a live status. The saved event includes five outcome markets, each asking whether a specific song will be the number one song for that week [1]. The yes prices in that snapshot ranged from 0.0005 to 0.9945 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the likelihood that a song will top the chart. The prices across the five markets also should not be treated as a complete list of every possible outcome, since the provider's sample warning states that listing all saved markets does not establish that every real-world outcome is included [1].
Historical Context
The Billboard Hot 100 is described as a chart that ranks the best-performing songs in the United States [2][3]. The two Wikipedia list pages in the evidence name different data compilers: the 2019 page names Nielsen SoundScan [3] and the 2021 page names MRC Data [2]. These pages describe the chart's methodology for their respective years, and the evidence does not explain when or why the compiler changed. The evidence does not include information about the chart's history for 2026 beyond the contract rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which song Billboard places first on one specific weekly Hot 100 chart. The chart is based on each song's weekly physical and digital sales, the amount of airplay it receives on American radio stations, and its streams on online digital music platforms [2]. Because the contract names one chart week and includes a tie-break rule, its outcome depends on the official published ranking rather than on general popularity or other measures [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract use to decide the winner?
The contract resolves to the number one song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled "Week of October 24, 2026" [1]. The chart reflects data from the previous week, Friday through Thursday, and is titled by the date of the upcoming Saturday [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties are broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles [1].
What happens if the chart is not published on time?
If the chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, the market resolves to Other [1].
Do the yes prices show how likely each song is to win?
No. The prices are snapshots from the observed time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. The contract's own rules define the resolution, and the prices reflect only the market state at that moment.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.