Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Total Volume

$10.88K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Vol

$10.88K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.88K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.88K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	100%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	73%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	65%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	57%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$10.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

By Jan 1, 2027 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Jan 1, 2027

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $384
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $341
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Volume$10.88K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.29% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.34% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.44% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

69¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/c0QLbJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Markets (5)

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget