Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

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$45.17K

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Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Vol

$45.17K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $45.17K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $45.17K

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29 markets tracked

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Single-Platform Markets(29)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	46%
Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	38%
Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	37%
Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	37%
Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	37%
Will Eli Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	37%
Will Oded Forer be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	35%
Will Israel Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	34%
Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	31%
Will Yariv Levin be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Keren Terner Eyal be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Yair Golan be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Miki Zohar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Amir Ohana be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Ofir Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	29%
Will Michael Malchieli be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	29%
Will David Amsalem be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	28%
Will Yinon Azulay be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	28%
Will Aryeh Deri be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	27%
Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	24%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	20%
Will Naama Lazimi be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Moshe Gafni be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Meirav Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Gadi Eisenkot be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Yitzhak Goldknopf be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Naftali Bennett be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Gilad Kariv be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Ayelet Shaked be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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46%

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$45.17K

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About This Event

Before Oct 27, 2027 If X formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Oct 27, 2027

If X formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Yariv Levin formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Yariv Levin be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yair Golan be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yitzhak Goldknopf be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $456
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Yinon Azulay be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $338
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ofir Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $342
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Oded Forer be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Naama Lazimi be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Naftali Bennett be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Miki Zohar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Michael Malchieli be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Moshe Gafni be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Meirav Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Keren Terner Eyal be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Israel Katz be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gilad Kariv be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Gadi Eisenkot be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Eli Cohen be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will David Amsalem be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Ayelet Shaked be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Amir Ohana be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Aryeh Deri be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Volume$45.17K

Markets29

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KALSHI

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If Gideon Sa'ar formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior i

KALSHI

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If Miri Regev formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in

KALSHI

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.0¢No 63.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If Haim Biton formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in

KALSHI

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.0¢No 63.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If Chili Tropper formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior

KALSHI

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If Yoav Ben-Tzur formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior

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Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

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Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Events (1)

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Markets (29)

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Miri Regev be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Haim Biton be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Chili Tropper be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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