$11.59K
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$11.59K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Next presidential election If X Y wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently price a 44% probability that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win Turkey's next presidential election. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views his re-election as slightly less likely than not, but still a highly plausible outcome. With only $12,000 in volume spread across related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting this is a preliminary assessment rather than a hardened consensus. A 44% chance reflects significant uncertainty in a political landscape where Erdoğan is the defining incumbent but faces substantial economic and electoral challenges.
Two primary factors are suppressing Erdoğan's odds below the 50% threshold. First, Turkey's prolonged economic crisis, with inflation exceeding 50% annually and a severely depreciated lira, has eroded public confidence and constitutes the incumbent's greatest vulnerability. Second, the opposition demonstrated unprecedented cohesion in the 2023 general and presidential elections, forcing Erdoğan into a historic runoff which he ultimately won by a narrow margin. This proved a competitive path exists, and opposition parties are likely to build on this coalition model. The current pricing suggests markets believe these headwinds slightly outweigh Erdoğan's structural advantages in media control and political machinery.
The election date, which has not been formally set but is constitutionally required by 2028, is the key timeline catalyst. Odds will shift dramatically as the date approaches and candidacies solidify. A significant recovery in Turkey's economy, potentially through orthodox policy shifts, could rapidly improve Erdoğan's prospects and drive his probability above 50%. Conversely, a formal and united opposition announcement with a compelling candidate would likely depress his odds further. Major geopolitical events involving Turkey, such as a sharp escalation in regional conflict or a breakthrough in foreign policy, could also serve as volatility drivers for this market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The next Turkish presidential election will determine who leads Turkey, a strategically important NATO member and regional power, for a five-year term. The election is scheduled for 2028, but speculation and political positioning have begun much earlier, driven by constitutional provisions and the current political climate. The presidency holds significant executive power following a 2017 constitutional referendum that transformed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system, centralizing authority in the office. This upcoming contest is viewed as a critical test for the long-ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics since 2003. The election's outcome will shape Turkey's foreign policy direction, economic management, and domestic social policies, with implications for its relations with the European Union, the United States, and regional neighbors. Interest is high due to Turkey's economic challenges, including high inflation, and its pivotal geopolitical role amid conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Modern Turkish presidential elections have been fundamentally reshaped by the 2017 constitutional referendum, which replaced the parliamentary system with an executive presidency. This change, approved by 51.4% of voters, took effect with the 2018 presidential election, which Erdoğan won. Previously, the presidency was a largely ceremonial role elected by parliament. The 2018 and 2023 elections were the first two held under the new system, which grants the president sweeping powers to appoint ministers, issue decrees, and influence the judiciary. The 2023 election was particularly historic as it presented the first unified opposition front, the Nation Alliance, against Erdoğan and the People's Alliance. Despite high expectations and a severe economic crisis, Erdoğan secured 52.18% of the vote in the May 28 runoff against Kılıçdaroğlu's 47.82%. This extended his rule, which began as Prime Minister in 2003, into a third decade. The election demonstrated the resilience of Erdoğan's conservative-nationalist base and the challenges of coalition-building for the fragmented opposition.
The outcome of the next presidential election will have profound consequences for Turkey's economic stability and international standing. The winner will oversee economic policy amid persistent inflation, which exceeded 60% in early 2024, and will manage the country's foreign currency reserves and debt. Their approach will directly impact the livelihoods of 85 million citizens and investor confidence. Politically, the election is a referendum on Turkey's governance model. A continuation of the current administration would likely mean a deepening of the presidential system and its centralized power structure. A change in leadership could trigger a significant reorientation of Turkey's foreign policy, potentially altering its balancing act between NATO commitments and relationships with Russia, as well as its stance toward the European Union accession process. Domestically, the election will influence the space for civil society, media freedom, and the judiciary's independence, defining the character of Turkish democracy for years to come.
As of early 2024, the political landscape is in a post-2023 election phase. President Erdoğan and the AKP-MHP alliance control the presidency and parliament. The main opposition CHP is undergoing internal reflection after its 2023 defeat, with discussions about leadership and strategy. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu remains a focal point for future opposition hopes, but he was sentenced to nearly three years in prison and given a political ban in December 2023 for insulting public officials, a case currently under appeal. The next local elections in March 2024 are being watched as a key barometer of party strength and potential candidate popularity ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Economically, the government continues its policy shift toward more orthodox measures under Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek to combat inflation, a pivot that will be tested in the coming years.
The next presidential election is constitutionally scheduled for 2028. However, the president has the power to call an early election, so the date could theoretically change, though this is considered unlikely before the scheduled time.
This is a subject of legal and political debate. The Turkish constitution limits a person to two presidential terms. Erdoğan's supporters argue his first term (2014-2018) was under the old system, so his 2018 election was his 'first' under the new constitution, making 2023 his second and allowing a 2028 run. Opponents contest this interpretation. The final decision would likely rest with the Supreme Election Council (YSK).
No candidate has been formally declared. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is frequently mentioned as a leading potential contender from the CHP, but his candidacy depends on his legal appeals and internal party decisions. Other figures like Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş or a renewed candidacy from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu are also possibilities, but the opposition's candidate selection process remains fluid.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (HDP), now contesting under the DEM Party banner, is a significant third force. It did not field a presidential candidate in 2023 and urged its supporters to back Kılıçdaroğlu. Its future electoral strategy, whether to support a mainstream opposition candidate or run its own, will critically impact the opposition's chances of reaching the 50% threshold.
Voters cast a ballot for a single presidential candidate. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election is held two weeks later between the top two candidates. The winner of the runoff, who must simply receive more votes, then serves a five-year term as president with extensive executive powers.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Kalshi | 44% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Kalshi | 16% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş) | Kalshi | 10% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Kalshi | 8% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Ali Babacan) | Kalshi | 4% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Sinan Oğan) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Muharrem İnce) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Müsavat Dervişoğlu) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Fatih Erbakan) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? (Ümit Özdağ) | Kalshi | 2% |
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