Name: Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls
End: 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z

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Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will Saracens win?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Saracens win?	Poly	50%
Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?	Poly	33%
Will the match end in a draw?	Poly	18%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This event is for the upcoming Premiership Rugby match between Saracens and Newcastle Red Bulls, scheduled for January 24 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 24 2026
If Newcastle Red Bulls wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $182
* **Total Liquidity:** $518
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Saracens win?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the match end in a draw?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 2h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 3:00 PM

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Average Yes Price

34¢

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Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls

Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls

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Will Saracens win?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls

Markets (3)

Will Saracens win?

Will Saracens win?

Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?

Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?

Will the match end in a draw?

Will the match end in a draw?

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Will Saracens win?

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Premiership Rugby: Saracens vs Newcastle Red Bulls

Will Saracens win?

Will Saracens win?

Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?

Will Newcastle Red Bulls win?

Will the match end in a draw?

Will the match end in a draw?

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