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MAL vs ATH (Jan 17) If X wins the Mallorca vs Bilbao professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Mallorca vs Bilbao professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves
Prediction markets are pricing in a competitive but uncertain outcome for the La Liga match between Mallorca and Athletic Bilbao. The leading market for an Athletic Bilbao victory is trading at 43%, implying the market assigns them a slight edge as the away favorite, but views the match as highly contested. This 43% chance suggests the market sees a Bilbao win as the most likely single outcome, yet far from certain, with the implied probability for a Mallorca win or draw collectively standing at 57%. The thin trading volume of approximately $2,000 indicates this is an early, illiquid market, meaning prices are more tentative and susceptible to sharp moves.
Two primary factors are shaping the current pricing. First, Athletic Bilbao's stronger league position and historical performance against Mallorca are key. Bilbao consistently finishes in the top half of La Liga and possesses a more potent attacking structure. Second, Mallorca's robust home defensive record at the Visit Mallorca Estadi creates a significant counterbalance. They are notoriously difficult to break down at home, often relying on a low-block strategy that leads to tight, low-scoring games. This dynamic explains why Bilbao's odds are only modestly favorable, as the market accounts for Mallorca's capacity to secure a draw or narrow win through defensive resilience.
The odds will be highly sensitive to team news and form in the immediate buildup to the match. Key catalysts include injury reports for pivotal players, particularly Bilbao's attacking threats and Mallorca's defensive anchors. A confirmed absence for a top Bilbao scorer could shift odds toward Mallorca, while a defensive injury for the hosts would likely see Bilbao's probability rise. Furthermore, the match's scheduling context closer to January 2026 will be crucial. If either team is involved in a concurrent domestic cup competition, squad rotation and fatigue could dramatically alter the pre-match calculus and market prices.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Mallorca vs Bilbao Winner? (Bilbao) | Kalshi | 43% |
Mallorca vs Bilbao Winner? (Tie) | Kalshi | 32% |
Mallorca vs Bilbao Winner? (Mallorca) | Kalshi | 26% |
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This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a specific La Liga professional soccer match between RCD Mallorca and Athletic Club Bilbao, originally scheduled for January 17, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after the standard 90 minutes of regulation play plus any added stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootouts that might occur in cup competitions. A separate market exists to resolve a tie outcome. This fixture is a regular season encounter in Spain's top-flight football division, featuring two clubs with distinct identities and historical significance within Spanish football. RCD Mallorca, based in Palma on the Balearic Island of Mallorca, is a club known for its passionate local support and periods of strong performance, including a Copa del Rey victory in 2003. Athletic Club Bilbao, based in the Basque Country, is famous for its unique policy of fielding players of Basque origin, a tradition that has defined the club's identity for over a century. The match is of interest to bettors and football analysts due to the contrasting styles and the competitive nature of La Liga, where mid-table clashes like this can significantly impact European qualification and relegation battles. The specific date places it in the latter half of the 2025-2026 season, a critical period where league positions become increasingly consequential.
The rivalry between RCD Mallorca and Athletic Bilbao is not one of Spain's most historic or heated derbies, but it represents a recurring clash between a club from an island community and one from a fiercely distinct mainland region. The first official meeting between the two clubs in La Liga occurred during the 1960-1961 season. Historically, Athletic Bilbao has held the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, reflecting its status as one of only three clubs never to have been relegated from La Liga, alongside Barcelona and Real Madrid. A significant historical precedent for this match is the 2024 Copa del Rey final, where Athletic Bilbao defeated RCD Mallorca in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw to lift the trophy. That match, played in Seville, added a layer of recent competitive history and potential for revenge narratives. Throughout the 21st century, matches have often been closely contested, with Mallorca's famous 1-0 victory at San Mamés in the 2022-2023 season, secured by a late goal, serving as a notable example of their ability to upset Bilbao on their home turf. The fixture often pits Mallorca's disciplined, counter-attacking approach against Bilbao's more possession-based and physically intense style.
Beyond the immediate three points, this match has broader significance for both clubs' seasonal objectives and financial health. For Mallorca, positive results against established top-half teams are crucial for securing another season in La Liga, which guarantees substantial television revenue estimated at over 50 million euros annually, vital for the club's operations and ability to compete. For Athletic Bilbao, consistently finishing in European qualification places is a key strategic goal, as participation in competitions like the UEFA Europa League brings significant prestige, additional revenue, and helps attract and retain top Basque talent. Socially, the match is a point of pride and identity for the respective regions. A victory for Mallorca energizes the Balearic Islands, while a win for Bilbao reinforces the success of its unique Basque-only player model, a policy deeply intertwined with regional identity. The outcome influences league dynamics, affecting the ambitions of other clubs competing for similar positions in the table.
As of the latest available information, both clubs are competing in the 2024-2025 La Liga season. The specific match for January 17, 2026, is part of the future fixture schedule released by La Liga. The exact form, squad composition, and league positions of both teams leading into that date will be determined by their performances throughout the 2025-2026 campaign. Recent developments relevant to the build-up of such a future fixture include ongoing contract negotiations for key players like Nico Williams at Bilbao and the continuous efforts by both clubs in summer transfer windows to strengthen their squads for upcoming seasons. The managerial situations of Javier Aguirre and Ernesto Valverde appear stable, suggesting both are likely to be in charge for the foreseeable future, providing tactical continuity.
The exact kick-off time for the match on January 17, 2026, will be confirmed by La Liga closer to the date, typically a few weeks in advance. Fixtures can be scheduled for various slots including afternoons and evenings on Saturdays and Sundays.
Broadcast rights vary by country. In the United States, La Liga matches are broadcast on ESPN platforms. In the United Kingdom, they are shown on Viaplay Sports and LaLigaTV. Viewers should check local listings as rights can change.
Athletic Bilbao's cantera policy, often called the 'Basque-only' policy, is a club tradition of only fielding players who were born in the Basque Country, or who learned their football skills at Basque clubs. It is a unique identity marker in world football.
Yes, RCD Mallorca's major trophy is the Copa del Rey, which they won in 2003 by defeating Recreativo de Huelva in the final. They were also runners-up in the 1999 UEFA Cup Winners' Cup.
RCD Mallorca plays at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, which has a seating capacity of approximately 23,142 spectators for football matches.
Athletic Bilbao's all-time top scorer is Telmo Zarra, who scored 335 goals for the club between 1940 and 1955. He also holds the record for most goals in a single La Liga season (38 in 1950-1951).
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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