Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
K 1.7K contracts
1
8
Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
K 1.7K contracts
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Marques, 1+ pts at 48%.
Kalshi
- Marques, 1+ pts48%
- Marques, 2+ pts41%
- Marques, 5+ pts24%
- Marques, 8+ pts10.1%
- Marques, 11+ pts4.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Alabama's 2nd District If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Alabama's 2nd District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts ask whether the Democratic Party's margin of victory in Alabama's 2nd District U.S. House race in the 2026 election will reach set thresholds [1]. The margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind Democrats if they win, or minus the first-place finisher's percentage if they lose. A loss produces a negative margin [1]. No rounding is applied, and each range includes its lower bound, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range [1]. A tie produces a margin of 0 [1].
This snapshot contains ten "at least" contracts, with thresholds from 2 to 29 percentage points [1]. Each title states its own threshold, so readers should compare the specific threshold in each contract rather than treating them as one range.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T00:38:33.697Z [1]. The prices are quoted snapshots from that observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. All ten saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1].
In this snapshot, the 2-point Yes price is 0.28 and the 5-point Yes price is 0.13. The 8-point Yes price is 0.0495. Yes prices from 11 to 29 points run from 0.025 to 0.0325 [1]. Higher thresholds carry lower prices here, which matches the cumulative structure of the contracts. The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels.
Volume and trader counts are not included in the supplied evidence, so these prices should not be read as measures of liquidity or agreement among participants.
What remains uncertain
The listing data conflict on timing. The market records show an endDate of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z, but the source states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The endDate field is a listing value and is not confirmed as an election, certification, or resolution date. The rules also say the market will close early if certified results are published [1]. The evidence does not establish when that certification will occur, so actual resolution timing remains unknown.
No election results appear in the evidence, so the snapshot cannot show how any threshold will resolve. All contracts here come from one provider, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Prices for different thresholds are separate contracts and should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal.
References
- Kalshi: Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks how many percentage points Democrats win by in the 2026 U.S. House election in Alabama's 2nd District. The rules define a margin as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind it. If Democrats lose, the margin is measured against the first-place finisher and is negative. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. Each market in this group is a threshold question. A market resolves Yes if the Democratic margin reaches the stated number of points. The lower bound of each range is inclusive and the upper bound is exclusive, and no rounding is applied. The rules give an example: a margin of exactly 6 percent falls in the 6-7 percent range, while 5.99999 percent falls in the 5-6 percent range [1]. Where the Democratic Party appears under several party labels, its votes are summed before the margin is calculated [1]. In an uncontested race where Democrats are the only candidate, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of raw votes cast if the market is measured in raw votes [1]. The provider also states that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The provider status is listed as active, and the provider rules do not supply a listed end time [1]. The election itself is scheduled. A Wikipedia page on the 2026 Alabama House elections states that the elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect seven U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district [2]. The same page says the state's primaries took place on May 19, that runoffs were held on June 16 where needed, and that special primaries were held on August 11 in districts affected by new congressional lines drawn after redistricting in May [2]. This describes the election calendar as recorded on that page and does not report any results. The market data lists an end date of November 3, 2027 for each threshold. That is a date recorded in the market data, not an announced election or certification date, and the contract's early-close language means the market can resolve sooner than that listed date [1].
Historical Context
A Wikipedia article on the 2026 Alabama House elections describes the cycle's sequence of primaries, runoffs and special primaries that followed redistricting in May, as summarized above [2]. The page's description reflects its retrieved content and does not confirm any result of the November general election.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the Democratic victory margin rather than only which party wins. Each threshold market therefore tracks whether the final margin reaches a specific number of percentage points. The provider's rules define exactly how that margin is calculated, including inclusive lower bounds, no rounding, and the treatment of ties and uncontested races [1]. The market data in this group shows Yes prices of 0.28 for at least 2 points, 0.13 for at least 5 points, and 0.0495 for at least 8 points [1]. These are observed snapshots from the provider data and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, and the provider notes that this does not establish that every possible outcome is listed. The prices should not be read as a complete ranking of all possible margins.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if Democrats lose the race?
The margin is calculated against the candidate or party that finishes first, and the result is negative [1]. A threshold market for a positive margin would therefore resolve No in that case [1].
How are ties and uncontested races handled?
A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. In an uncontested race where Democrats are the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total raw vote count if the market uses raw votes [1].
Does rounding affect how a threshold resolves?
No rounding is applied to the calculated margin, and each range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound [1]. A margin of exactly 6 percent resolves in the 6-7 percent range rather than the 5-6 percent range [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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