$42.85K
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$42.85K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Oscars - Marty Supreme If Marty Supreme has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently give Marty Supreme roughly a 2 in 3 chance of winning exactly one Academy Award at the upcoming Oscars. This is the leading forecast among 17 different possible outcomes being traded. While there is a niche following for this market, with about $43,000 wagered so far, traders on different platforms show mild disagreement, with odds varying by about 6%. The collective bet suggests a belief that the film will be recognized with a single Oscar, not a complete shutout or a major sweep.
The forecast likely balances the film’s artistic strengths against the competitive nature of this year’s awards. Marty Supreme is presumably a contender in specific categories, perhaps for its screenplay, a technical achievement, or a supporting performance. The odds for exactly one win suggest traders see it as a strong nominee in one area, but not the dominant frontrunner across multiple categories. This often happens with well-regarded films that are not considered the outright "Best Picture" favorite. Historical context also matters. The Oscars frequently spread awards among several top films, so a single win for a respected contender is a common outcome.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled in about 21 days, is the definitive event. However, predictions could shift based on awards shows that precede the Oscars, like the BAFTAs or guild awards (Directors Guild, Producers Guild). These are seen as strong indicators of Oscar voting trends. A win or loss for Marty Supreme in a key category at one of these events could quickly change the market’s probability for its ultimate Oscar tally.
Prediction markets have a mixed but often insightful record on awards shows. They efficiently aggregate opinions from informed followers who track industry buzz and precursor awards. For a question about the exact number of wins, the accuracy can be good, but it’s not perfect. The main limitation is that these are low-volume markets compared to political events, so they can be more sensitive to small changes in sentiment or last-minute insider rumors. They are a useful snapshot of informed expectations, not a guaranteed forecast.
Prediction markets currently assign a 63% probability that the film "Marty Supreme" will win exactly one Academy Award at the 98th Oscars. This price, found on the "Exactly 1" award contract, is the consensus favorite across platforms. A 63% chance indicates the market views a single win as the most likely outcome, but significant uncertainty remains for other results. The contract for "Exactly 0" awards trades at 22%, while "Exactly 2" holds a 12% probability. The combined odds for three or more awards are negligible at 3%. The market shows moderate confidence in a limited victory.
The pricing reflects a specific awards season narrative. "Marty Supreme" is widely considered a major contender in the Best Actor category, with its lead performance generating consistent critical praise and precursor awards. However, markets see its strength as concentrated. The film is not the frontrunner in the top Best Picture race, and its technical categories like editing or cinematography face stiff competition from larger-scale productions. Historical patterns show that films which peak with a major acting win often finish with exactly one Oscar, especially if they lack the sweeping momentum needed for a Best Picture victory. The current odds mirror this common awards path.
The odds will be most sensitive to the results of major guild awards in the coming weeks, particularly the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. A SAG win for the lead actor would solidify the "Exactly 1" scenario, potentially pushing that contract above 75%. Conversely, an unexpected loss there could rapidly shift money into the "Exactly 0" contract. The other volatile scenario is if the film gains surprising strength in a below-the-line category, such as Best Original Score or Best Production Design. A nomination and subsequent win in one such category would directly challenge the consensus, moving significant probability from the "Exactly 1" contract into "Exactly 2." Final Oscar nomination announcements on January 17th will provide the definitive field of competition.
This is a cross-platform event on Kalshi and Polymarket. A consistent 5-6% price spread exists, with Polymarket consistently pricing the "Exactly 1" outcome about 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi. For example, if Kalshi shows 58%, Polymarket may show 63%. This spread indicates a thin arbitrage opportunity, but it persists due to low liquidity and platform-specific trader bases. The total volume across 17 sub-markets is only $43,000, which is insufficient for large trades to quickly equalize prices. Polymarket's user base often prices in slightly more optimism for pop culture events, which explains its consistently higher probabilities for the positive outcome here.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the Oscar awards performance of the film 'Marty Supreme' at the 98th Academy Awards. Participants are betting on whether the film will win exactly X number of Oscars, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if that precise outcome occurs. The market includes an early close condition if the event happens before the official ceremony concludes. The Academy Awards, commonly called the Oscars, are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to recognize artistic and technical merit in the film industry. 'Marty Supreme' is a major contender in the current awards season, generating significant buzz for its creative team and subject matter. Interest in this market stems from the competitive nature of the Oscars, where even highly nominated films can win few awards, and from the financial and reputational stakes for studios, filmmakers, and actors involved. The prediction allows observers to quantify expectations about the film's success against its peers. The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 2026, honoring films released in 2025. The exact number X in the market is determined by the prediction platform when the market is created, representing a specific numerical outcome for bettors to evaluate.
Martin Scorsese's relationship with the Oscars is long and complex. Despite being one of the most acclaimed directors in history, Scorsese did not win a competitive Oscar until 2007 for 'The Departed', after six previous directing nominations for films like 'Raging Bull', 'Goodfellas', and 'The Aviator'. This narrative of a revered filmmaker finally being honored has since become a recurring theme in Oscar campaigns. Historically, Scorsese's films perform well in technical categories. His movies have won 20 Oscars from 92 nominations. 'The Departed' won 4 Oscars from 5 nominations. 'The Irishman' in 2020 received 10 nominations but won none, demonstrating that high nomination counts do not guarantee wins. The 95th Oscars in 2023 saw 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' win 7 awards from 11 nominations, a high conversion rate. In contrast, 'The Power of the Dog' in 2022 won only 1 award from 12 nominations. This history shows that a film's nomination-to-win ratio is unpredictable and influenced by category competition and campaign dynamics. The expansion of the Best Picture nominee slate from 5 to up to 10 films in 2009 has also changed the calculus, allowing more populist and genre films to compete alongside traditional Oscar fare.
The Oscar performance of a film like 'Marty Supreme' has tangible financial consequences. Winning major Oscars typically generates a box office boost for the film in re-release and significantly increases its value in downstream markets like streaming, television licensing, and home video. For Apple, a major win validates its substantial investment in prestige filmmaking and helps attract top talent for future projects. The results also affect the careers of everyone involved, with Oscar wins leading to higher salaries and greater creative control for actors, directors, and producers. On a broader cultural level, the Oscars remain a powerful, though contested, arbiter of artistic achievement. Which films the Academy chooses to honor shapes historical narratives about cinema and influences which types of stories get greenlit by studios. A strong showing for 'Marty Supreme', a likely serious drama from an established auteur, would reinforce traditional Oscar preferences. A poor showing could signal shifting tastes within the Academy membership or increased competition from different genres and international films.
As of late 2024, 'Marty Supreme' is in production with an expected 2025 release date to qualify for the 98th Oscars. No official trailer or screening has occurred, but industry trade publications like Variety and The Hollywood Reporter have identified it as a major awards contender based on its creative team and subject matter. The film will likely premiere at a major fall 2025 film festival, such as Telluride, Venice, or Toronto, to begin its awards campaign. Competing films for the 2026 Oscars are not yet fully known, as most contenders will be released throughout 2025. Early speculation suggests it will compete in categories including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and several technical awards like Cinematography and Editing.
The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 2026. The exact date will be announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in mid-2025. The ceremony honors films released in the calendar year 2025.
Martin Scorsese has won one competitive Oscar for Best Director for 'The Departed' (2007). He also received an honorary Oscar in 2012 and has been nominated for nine other competitive directing Oscars.
If 'Marty Supreme' wins exactly X awards during the Oscars broadcast, the market will close and settle immediately. This prevents further trading after the outcome is definitively known, even before the official ceremony ends.
Winners are decided by votes from the over 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Most categories are voted on by all members, but some, like the short film and documentary branches, have special voting rules.
The last Scorsese film to win more than one Oscar was 'Hugo' in 2012, which won five technical awards. His last narrative feature to win multiple Oscars was 'The Departed' in 2007, which won four awards including Best Picture and Best Director.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 58% | 63% | 5% |
| 24% | 19% | 5% |
| 17% | 12% | 6% |
| 7% | 3% | 4% |
| 3% | 1% | 3% |
| 1% | 1% | 0% |
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Oscars - Marty Supreme If Marty Supreme has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme" has been nominated for 9 Oscars. This market will resolve according to the number of Oscars won by the film "Marty Supreme" or by people for their roles in that film at the 98th Academy Awards. If
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme"
If Marty Supreme has won exactly 1 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme"
If Marty Supreme has won exactly 0 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme"
If Marty Supreme has won exactly 2 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme"
If Marty Supreme has won exactly 3 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Marty Supreme"
If Marty Supreme has won exactly 4 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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