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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Democratics win the Senate race in California? | Kalshi | 92% |
Will Republicans win the Senate race in California? | Kalshi | 6% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2028 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of California for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently assign a 75% probability that Democrats will win the 2028 Arizona Senate race. This price, trading at 75¢ on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the clear favorite, though not a foregone conclusion. In plain terms, a 75% chance suggests traders see roughly a 3-in-4 likelihood of a Democratic win, reflecting moderate confidence given the thin $11,000 trading volume. The market will resolve based on which party's candidate is sworn into the Senate seat for the term beginning in 2029.
Two primary factors are shaping the current odds. First, Arizona's shifting political demography and recent electoral history favor Democrats in high-profile statewide races. The state has elected Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema (who was elected as a Democrat) in the last two cycles, and a Democrat has won the presidential popular vote in Arizona in both 2020 and 2024. This trend of competitive gains is being priced in for the 2028 open seat.
Second, the specific 2028 context involves the expected retirement of Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who is not affiliated with a major party. This creates an open seat contest without an incumbent, typically a more volatile scenario. However, the market is likely pricing in a perceived structural advantage for Democrats based on continued suburban realignment around Phoenix and Tucson, which have been critical to their recent successes.
The odds could tighten significantly as the election approaches and specific candidates emerge. A strong, well-funded Republican nominee who can consolidate the party base and appeal to independents could shift the market, especially if national political trends favor the GOP in the 2028 cycle. Conversely, a divisive Republican primary or a top-tier Democratic recruit could push probabilities even higher for Democrats.
Key catalysts will include candidate filing deadlines in early 2028, primary election results in August 2028, and major polling shifts following the party conventions. The thin current volume means prices are more sensitive to new information, and liquidity is expected to increase substantially as the election nears, leading to more efficient and potentially volatile pricing.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2028 United States Senate election in Arizona, which will determine who will represent the state in the U.S. Senate for the six-year term beginning in January 2029. The market resolves based on which party's candidate is sworn in as the next Senator from Arizona following the November 2028 general election. This race is of significant national interest as Arizona has evolved into one of the most competitive and politically pivotal states in the country, with recent elections decided by extremely narrow margins. The outcome will have major implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, which has been closely divided in recent years. The seat up for election in 2028 is currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an Independent who was formerly a Democrat. Sinema's political future and whether she will seek re-election are central questions shaping the early contours of the race. Arizona's shifting demographics, its status as a key presidential battleground, and its history of electing maverick politicians make this Senate contest one of the most unpredictable and consequential of the 2028 cycle. Political observers are closely monitoring candidate recruitment, fundraising, and shifting voter coalitions in the state.
Arizona's political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past three decades. Once a reliably Republican state in federal elections, it began showing signs of competitiveness in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The shift accelerated following the 2010 passage of SB 1070, a strict immigration law that alienated many Latino voters. Demographic changes, including an influx of younger, college-educated voters from other states and a growing Latino electorate, have fundamentally altered the state's politics. Arizona voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once between 1952 and 2016 (Bill Clinton in 1996), but it voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 10,457 votes. The state's Senate elections have followed a similar pattern. For decades, Republicans like Barry Goldwater and John McCain held the state's Senate seats. McCain served from 1987 until his death in 2018. The 2018 election marked a turning point when Kyrsten Sinema became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Arizona since Dennis DeConcini in 1988. She won by 2.4 percentage points (55,900 votes). In 2020, Mark Kelly won a special election to fill McCain's seat, and he was re-elected in 2022. These victories demonstrated the Democratic Party's growing strength in the state, though Republicans remain highly competitive, as shown by close gubernatorial and attorney general races in 2022.
The outcome of Arizona's 2028 Senate race will have profound implications for national governance. With the Senate frequently divided by a seat or two, Arizona's seat could determine which party controls the chamber and, by extension, the fate of presidential appointments, judicial nominations, and major legislation. The race is also a bellwether for the political direction of the American Southwest, testing whether Arizona's move toward competitiveness is permanent or transient. Furthermore, the campaign will serve as a high-stakes laboratory for political strategies in a diverse, Sun Belt state, influencing how both parties campaign in similar states like Nevada, Georgia, and Texas. The winner will help shape federal policy on critical issues for Arizona, including water management in the Colorado River Basin, border security, semiconductor manufacturing incentives, and solar energy development. For Arizona residents, the election will determine whether they are represented by a potential swing vote in a closely divided Senate or a reliable partisan, affecting the state's ability to secure federal resources and influence national policy debates.
As of late 2024, the 2028 Arizona Senate race is in its earliest speculative stages. The political landscape is heavily influenced by the concurrent 2024 Senate election, where Republican Kari Lake is challenging Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego for the seat being vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. The outcome of that race will reshape the political calculus for 2028. Senator Sinema has not announced her intentions for 2028 and maintains a low public profile regarding re-election. Potential candidates from both parties are focused on the 2024 cycle but are undoubtedly conducting behind-the-scenes polling and donor cultivation for a potential 2028 run. The Arizona Democratic and Republican parties are engaged in ongoing voter registration drives and building their data and field operations, recognizing that the 2028 race will be a marathon, not a sprint.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The winning candidate will be sworn into office in January 2029 for a six-year term ending in January 2035.
The seat is currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who was first elected in 2018. She changed her party registration from Democrat to Independent in December 2022.
As of late 2024, Senator Sinema has not publicly announced her plans for the 2028 election. Her decision is considered the major unknown that will define the early shape of the race.
Arizona has voted for Democratic Senate candidates in three of the last four elections (2018, 2020 special, 2020 regular), but by very narrow margins. Its growing, diverse population and large bloc of independent voters make it highly competitive for both parties.
The last Senate election was in 2022, when Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Blake Masters 51.4% to 46.5% to win a full six-year term. The next election for that seat will be in 2028.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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