US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Name: US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$93.22K

Events

Markets

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US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $93.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $93.22K

100%

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1 market tracked

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Poly	28%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$93.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On June 13, 2025 Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? 
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On June 13, 2025 Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On June 13, 2025 Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $93.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 30.47)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? 
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $93.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 15h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

28¢

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US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

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US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

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About This Event

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Events (1)