The SAVE Act prediction market tracks whether legislation requiring proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration will become law by a specified date. The market specifically references bills like H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, and H.R. 7296, the SAVE America Act. These bills propose amending the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 to mandate documentary proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, when registering to vote in federal elections. Currently, most states use a self-attestation system under the 'Motor Voter' law, where applicants sign a statement affirming citizenship under penalty of perjury. Proponents argue the change is necessary to prevent non-citizens from voting, while opponents contend it would create barriers for eligible citizens and address a virtually non-existent problem. Interest in this market stems from its position at the intersection of election security debates, immigration policy, and partisan politics, making its legislative progress a bellwether for broader political priorities. The topic gained prominence following the 2020 election and subsequent claims about election integrity, though similar legislative efforts have surfaced periodically for over a decade. The market's resolution depends on a bill clearing both the House and Senate and receiving the president's signature, or being enacted through other parliamentary means, by the deadline.

Historical Context

The modern debate over voter citizenship verification has roots in the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993, commonly called the 'Motor Voter' law. The NVRA simplified voter registration by allowing people to register at state motor vehicle agencies and by mail using a federal form. This form requires applicants to attest, under penalty of perjury, that they are U.S. citizens, but does not require documentary proof. In 2004, Arizona passed Proposition 200, requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. The Supreme Court ruled on this issue in 2013 in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona. The Court held that the NVRA's federal form preempted Arizona's proof-of-citizenship requirement for federal elections, meaning states could not add extra requirements to the federal form. However, the Court suggested states could ask the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) to include state-specific instructions on the federal form. In 2018, the EAC, under new leadership appointed by President Trump, approved such a request from Kansas. This decision was later struck down by a federal court. These legal battles established the current landscape: a federal law is viewed by proponents as the most direct path to implementing nationwide proof-of-citizenship requirements, circumventing state-by-state legal fights and the limitations imposed by the NVRA.

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