Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Percent of Soybeans in drought - week of October 13, 2026

Name: Percent of Soybeans in drought - week of October 13, 2026
End: 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$0.00

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Percent of Soybeans in drought - week of October 13, 2026

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Under 15% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Under 15% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%
Will 15% to 24% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%
Will 25% to 34% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%
Will 35% to 44% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%
Will 45% to 54% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%
Will 55% or more of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for soybeans acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national soybeans acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Percent of Soybeans in drought - week of October 13, 2026
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for soybeans acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026.

Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national soybeans acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for soybeans acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026.

Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $1
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Under 15% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 15% to 24% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 25% to 34% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 35% to 44% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 45% to 54% of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 55% or more of Soybeans acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate